When Force Meets Object

When Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal meet for the seventh time at Roland Garros on Wednesday, two sets of statistics will also be going head to head: 39-2 vs. 70-1.

The first is Djokovic’s record in 2015; the second is Nadal’s career record at the French Open. They encapsulate, in their co-brilliance, the core struggle in this match. The irresistible force that is Djokovic’s current form will meet the immovable object that is Nadal in Paris.

Or, as Rafa put it on Monday, in the best and most concise match preview you’re likely to read:

“He’s by far the best player in the world. He’s brimming with confidence. He has exceptional form. He won almost all the matches since the start of the year. He has only two defeats.

“I love Roland Garros. I love the tournament. I love the court. I will pull out all the stops to win the match. I feel competitive. I will fight to the bitter end. I don’t know if it will be enough ... So if I play well, and if my opponent plays better than me, I will shake hands and congratulate and then I will move on.”

At first glance, Nadal’s words (spoken in Spanish) appear to be a straightforward description of a match that could go either way. But looking at the first line—“He’s by far the best player in the world”—and the last—“I will shake hands and congratulate and then I will move on”—it seems clear that Nadal is feeling less pressure than he has at Roland Garros in the past. Djokovic is the best, Rafa says, and I’m just a scrappy guy who’s going to try to stay with him.

Of course, Nadal could be trying to shift the pressure in Djokovic’s direction by singing his praises. And we know how much he hates to call himself the favorite. But this time, for the first time, it would make sense that the seventh-ranked Rafa would feel less pressure, and wouldn't consider himself the top dog. At the start of the tournament, I’d say most fans agreed that Djokovic was the man to beat in Paris this year.

With these two, though, current form is not always decisive. After 43 meetings, theirs is a delicate psychological battle all its own, and the setting has traditionally mattered. At most events, Nadal feels pressured and even cornered by Djokovic’s game; he gets frustrated and negative more easily than he does against other opponents. But that dynamic has worked in reverse at the French Open, where it's the Serb who has come uncharacteristically unglued in crucial moments. Nadal is 6-0 against Djokovic at Roland Garros, but Djokovic has won five of their six meetings dating back to 2013. Rafa's only win over Nole during that time came in Paris last year.

“I never won against him at Roland Garros,” Djokovic said this week, “but on the other hand I was close a couple of times. And the fact that I have a great season this year and I’m feeling good from every aspect of my game allows me to have belief.”

The setting, while it will be inside Court Philippe Chatrier again, will be slightly different this time. Djokovic and Nadal are playing in the quarterfinals, something they haven’t done at any event since 2007 (though their first meeting was a quarterfinal at Roland Garros in 2006, in the photo above). Nadal has said that this will also relieve some pressure, because they’ll be playing only to reach the semifinals, not to win the title.

At first, I thought a quarterfinal face-off helped Djokovic because it gave Nadal less time to work up a full, imposing head of steam on his favorite courts. Now I’m starting to think it helps Nadal. He’s right that he won’t be playing for a title in this match, but will Djokovic also feel that way? He’s the one trying to win his first championship at Roland Garros. He’ll almost certainly feel more pressure trying to do that than Nadal will feel trying to win his 10th title there. In this case, the difference between nine and 10 does not equal the difference between zero and one.

But while the circumstances have begun to favor Nadal, the match will still rest on Djokovic’s racquet. If he plays well, handles the inevitable adversity and physical wear-and-tear that he’s destined to face, and separates Rafa from Roland Garros in his mind, he should win.

Piece of cake, right? Maybe, if all else fails, Djokovic can try to imagine what his younger, brasher self would tell him today.

“He’s beatable,” a 19-year-old Nole stated defiantly, to widespread skepticism, after his first loss to Nadal at Roland Garros nine years ago.

He may never have a better chance to prove himself right.

Winner: Djokovic