Which tournament is harder to win—Indian Wells or Miami?

With the Sunshine Swing about to get underway—the 2025 BNP Paribas Open begins on Wednesday, March 5—our writers and editors tackle the most important questions heading into Indian Wells and Miami.

Next up: Which tournament is tougher to win—Indian Wells or Miami?

ED MCGROGAN: All things being equal, Miami is the more likely March mini-major to feature a significant withdrawal—all the top players just competed at Indian Wells. It’s also closer to the European clay-court stretch that is home to so many of the sport’s stars. No one lets their foot off the gas for the Miami Open on purpose, but the BNP Paribas Open seems to get the most out of its competitors solely because it comes first. That said, either tournament’s champions roll is anything but outstanding.

DAVID KANE: One of the worrying by-products of the sport's ever-evolving circuit structure is players risk diminishing returns at the second of back-to-back big tournaments. Amanda Anisimova was on top of the world when she won Doha on a Saturday. By Monday, she had already lost in the first round of Dubai, barely 48 hours later. The turnaround from Indian Wells to Miami isn't as extreme, but it's still the final tournament of a three-month grind that starts in Australia and ends in hot and humid Florida. With the European swing looming, many may start looking to max out in Indian Wells and find Miami an increasingly tougher ask.

STEPHANIE LIVAUDAIS: Judging by the honor roll, Indian Wells poses a bigger challenge. No woman has won the title more than twice, and even the great Andy Murray never conquered the desert event. In Miami, Serena Williams (8), Djokovic and Andre Agassi (6) have all racked up five-plus wins.

LIYA DAVIDOV: Miami. Think of it like week two of a Slam. You already have a feeling for the atmosphere, the pressure and the tension of a hard-court 1000, and now it’s about locking in when everyone’s feeling physical, mental and emotional exhaustion. Whether a player loses first round or finds themselves finals-bound in California, back-to-back 1000s require so much from the players. And when the two tournaments are merged as the “Sunshine Swing”—talk about doubling the pressure!

PETE BODO: Although they are not equally difficult to win, Indian Wells is more challenging in some ways and Miami is a bigger ask in others. Players go into Indian Wells fresh. But it’s the more highly regarded of the back-to-back hard court Masters, so the stakes are that much higher. Efforts to market Indian Wells as the game’s “fifth Grand Slam” haven't stuck, but it’s still the most prestigious among the 1000s—the honor roll of winners attests to the heft of the event. Miami’s status has diminished since the move from Key Biscayne, and the environment in Miami Gardens and Hard Rock Stadium is bizarre compared to the delightful Indian Wells Tennis Garden. However, fatigue and the stifling weather in Florida can pose significant challenges for the players, especially those who did reasonably well at Indian Wells. Of course, winning in Miami after a triumph in the desert is one of the most difficult tasks in tennis. Only seven men and four women have won both in the same year.

MATT FITZGERALD: Both events have their challenges, but I’m inclined to believe the varying desert conditions at Indian Wells—have you seen those chilly evening matches?—are a trickier element to navigate over the course of the two weeks. This compared to Miami’s stickier offering that players are more accustomed to accounting for—and in some cases, using as a training environment outside of tournament weeks.

JOEL DRUCKER: Miami. One major reason for this is that Indian Wells’ mix of thin air, slow courts and deceptively draining dry weather can be extremely demanding. There follows a cross-country trip to Florida, where the conditions are far different, everything from more wind to thicker, muggier weather. As just one case study of how much more challenging Miami is, Rafael Nadal went 59-11 at Indian Wells, taking the title there three times. In Miami, Nadal was 40-12 and never emerged the victor. All the factors that define contemporary tennis contribute to the Miami challenge: slower hard courts, increased physicality, greater depth in the player field.

JON LEVEY: Each tournament brings its own set of challenges. Indian Wells offers dry conditions, high altitude and slower courts, while Miami boasts searing temps, wet weather and tempting nightlife. Winning either is an uphill climb. Indian Wells has the advantage of coming first, putting it squarely in the players’ crosshairs. Plus, they seem to appreciate the greater creature comforts and overall setup of the venue, making for a packed draw and a “Fifth Slam” atmosphere. So you get a more contented, crowded and inspired field. Miami often sees player attrition from those who fare well in the desert, as well as those who want to jumpstart their clay season. There’s not much separating them, and it can vary from year to year, but winning IW is the tougher ask.