Which under-the-radar player will surprise the most on court in 2025?

As we make our way toward the 2025 season—which begins Friday, December 27 with the United Cup—our writers and editors tackle the most important questions of the new year.

Ninth question: Which under-the-radar player will surprise the most on court in 2025?

Scroll down past this article to read more Burning Questions on 2025.

EMMA STOREY: After a 2024 full of career highlights, I’m backing Ugo Humbert to become a serious contender on the ATP Tour next year. The fiery Frenchman made headlines for his perceived unsportsmanlike conduct at his home Masters 1000 in Paris, but it’s perhaps his playing style that should be getting more attention heading into the new season. His explosive serve can hurt opponents on any surface, particularly hard.

That was most recently shown at Paris-Bercy, where he reached the first Masters final of his career, upsetting Carlos Alcaraz along the way. The 26-year-old thrives off a lively crowd, as I witnessed during the Ultimate Tennis Showdown in Frankfurt, where he also reached the final. With six ATP Tour titles and a career-high ranking of 13 already under his belt, I’d expect a top 10 breakthrough to be on the cards in 2025.

STEVE TIGNOR: This might seem like an invitation to choose an up-and-comer who will have a breakout season. There are a few young or youngish players who have that potential in 2025: Tomas Machac, Jakub Mensik, Mirra Andreeva, and Linda Noskova, to name four, have all shown flashes of a higher level of play than their current rankings would indicate.

But there are plenty of veterans who aren’t talked about, either. The most surprising player of 2024 was 28-year-old Italian Jasmine Paolini. Which makes me wonder if another 28-year-old Italian might follow in her footsteps in 2025.

Last year was really, really tough, one of the worse year of my career and my life as wello...when you're not able to do your job and what you like to do, then it's always a struggle, so I'm really appreciating every moment that I have to spend on court and to perform and give my best. Matteo Berrettini

Matteo Berrettini is much better known than Paolini was a year ago. He’s been to the semifinals or better at three of the majors, and ranked as high as No. 6. But his body, seemingly made of glass, has betrayed him for such long periods that he had largely become an afterthought by this season. He finished 2023 ranked 92nd, and 2024 ranked 34th.

Does that jump portend another in 2025? While he has been passed by younger countrymen like Jannik Sinner, Lorenzo Musetti, and Flavio Cobolli, the spotlight found Berrettini again at the end of last year when he helped lead Italy to its second straight Davis Cup.

Berrettini says he has been inspired by Sinner’s success. If he can hold his body together—a massive if—maybe 2025 will be the year when he adds his name back to our current Italian tennis renaissance.

ED MCGROGAN: We talked a lot about Alexei Popyrin during the US Open, when he ousted Novak Djokovic in the third round with a breathtaking display of blistering tennis. But the 25-year-old lost his next match in New York and really didn’t resurface until the regular-season-ending Paris Masters—when he took out Daniil Medvedev in a third-set tiebreaker.

Still, those two results are all you need to recognize the talent of this Australian, and consider his potential. I recall many at Flushing Meadows saying Popyrin was bound for the Top 10, and they may be proven right. He has the size (6’5”), the skill (his inside-out forehand winner against Djokovic on break point, punctuated with a guttural scream, was one of the shots of the year) and, perhaps now, the confidence.

Consistency will be the key, of course: Popyrin finished 2024 with a 28-22 record, and is still under .500 for his career (93-112).

Luckily for us, we may get a sense of Popryin’s season, and ceiling, pretty soon. He’ll be seeded at the Australian Open, where he’ll have plenty of support. He’s the quintessential dangerous floater that any title contender would love to avoid in the third or fourth round. Nick Kyrgios’s return to action in Melbourne will generate the headlines early, but Popyrin should be the bigger Aussie story.

Stay tuned for Wednesday's question: Our hottest takes for 2025.