Who will be the next first-time men’s Grand Slam champion?

The countdown to the 2023 season is underway. As we close in on the start of the new, dual-gender United Cup (December 29), TENNIS.com's writers will debate the 10 biggest questions heading into the new tennis year.

Who will be the next first-time men’s Grand Slam champion?

Jon Levey: Judging by his 2022 Grand Slam results—just one quarterfinal—it wouldn’t appear that Felix Auger-Aliassime is knocking on the door of his first major. However, there were also some real positives, including a 4-1 record in finals—he started his career 0-8—and wins over Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz. Auger-Aliassime was arguably the best player post-US Open, including spearheading Canada’s first Davis Cup title. He’ll use the confidence he gained from that performance and become Canada’s first men’s Grand Slam singles champion as well.

David Kane: Combining surface strength and recent momentum (and for the second straight year), it's hard to pick against Casper Ruud when forecasting Roland Garros 2023. Of the year's major semifinalists yet to win a major, the Norwegian has managed to stay healthier than Matteo Berrettini, and play big matches more consistently than Nick Kyrgios, Frances Tiafoe, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alexander Zverev.

Tsitsipas and Zverev both reached major finals sooner than Ruud, but Ruud has already reached his second at the US Open, and put together a highly credible run to the finals of the Nitto ATP Finals. All that's missing for the understated 23-(going on 24)-year-old is a big final victory: he went 0-4 against an admittedly impressive trio of Alcaraz, Rafael Nadal and Djokovic in Miami, Paris, New York and Turin. The best thing Ruud can do is continue to put himself in position for success, and with no points to defend in January, it's easy to see him carrying this form Down Under.

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Joel Drucker: What does it take to break through and win a Grand Slam singles title? Ask a legendary coach named Tom Stow. His most prominent student was Don Budge, who in 1938 became the first player to win all four major titles in a calendar year—the first rendition of what’s now called the Grand Slam. Stow said this: “There are two games in tennis—the serve game and the return game.” Of course, how it usually works in tennis is that initially one player has more skill in one first, and then the other improves. The thinking here is that Taylor Fritz has put in the hard yards to be formidable in both areas and in time make a major breakthrough.

Matt Fitzgerald: As tempting it is to tip one of the five guys who has been within a win of a major title over the past three seasons—Zverev, Tstisipas, Berrettini, Ruud and Kyrgios—I’m more swayed by the potential growth arc of Jannik Sinner.

While injury niggles remained a concern in 2022, pointing to ongoing question marks about his physicality, Sinner was rock-solid at the majors, going 15-4. He led Novak Djokovic by two sets at Wimbledon and was a point away from reaching a maiden semifinal in his spellbinding US Open duel with eventual champ Carlos Alcaraz. Darren Cahill has proven himself time and time again to be a coach who helps his charges reach the finish line. With the Aussie in his corner, Sinner has the world-class support to go with his all-court toolkit—one that should soon propel him to the final weekend of a Grand Slam event.