Who will finish as the top-ranked American man, and can that player contend for majors?

The countdown to the 2023 season is underway. As we close in on the start of the new, dual-gender United Cup (December 29), TENNIS.com's writers will debate the 10 biggest questions heading into the new tennis year.

Who will finish as the top-ranked American man, and can that player contend for majors?

Peter Bodo: I’m bullish on Taylor Fritz, and have been impressed for a long time by his degree of maturity and dedication to his craft. Early stardom (Fritz made the Memphis final at age 18 in 2016, in just his second ATP event) did not knock him for a loop. He has worked hard and made steady progress in the rankings, then finally cracked the Top 10 this year on the strength of amazing performances at two big events, the Indian Wells Masters 1000 and the Tokyo ATP 500.

Two things held Fritz back until he began his current push in fall 2021. First, he was overly conscious of his ranking, which led him to play too passively against less lower-ranked rivals. He also did not exploit the potential of his forehand as a weapon. If those shortcomings have been eliminated for good, his complete game, world-class power and drive will enable him to contend at majors.

Jon Levey: Weapons, temperament, lineage: Sebastian Korda’s game is loaded. Of all the rising American men, his ceiling appears the highest. He started the 2021 season outside the Top 100 and currently sits at No. 33, the fourth-highest ranked American. With more consistent results, he’ll be poised for a breakout season. Capturing his first major is probably further down the road, but he’s capable of making a deep run into the second week, most likely at one of the hard-court Slams. His year-end ranking will be just outside the Top 10, and no other American man will be higher.

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Ed McGrogan: Fritz’s rise makes it hard to pick against him, but I’m going to go with the second-ranked American, Frances Tiafoe. All the DMV native did in 2022 was crack the Top 20 for the first time and post career-best finishes at three of the four majors, including a semifinal in New York. He is the epitome of a big-match player, with fitness and skills to match. Next year will mark 20 since the last time an American man won a Grand Slam singles title, and I’d tab Frances to end the drought over anyone else. (Dark-horse pick as top-ranked American: Jenson Brooksby.)

Joel Drucker: Fritz’s size and serve first landed him on the tennis radar when he was still a junior. But in recent years, I’ve been even more impressed by his tenacity—a strong work ethic that’s greatly helped Fritz become a better mover, and therefore more able to deploy his weapons. He’s also repeatedly proven able to return from injuries. All that persistence helped Fritz make his way into the Top 10. His quarterfinal run at Wimbledon, where he extended Nadal to a fifth-set tiebreaker, showed that he has what it takes be a force at the Slams. I’m thinking that a bit more refinement in the transition area will aid his cause even more, and keep him in the thick of things for many years.