Jakub Mensik, Miami champion, was going to pull out of the tournament an hour before his first match

Rybakina looks to go one better than her 2023 finish, while Collins aims to take her farewell tour to new heights at the Hard Rock Stadium: who has the edge?

ByDavid Kane and Stephanie Livaudais

Published Mar 29, 2024

MATCH POINT: Danielle Collins scores first WTA 1000 final at Miami Open over Ekaterina Alexandrova

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The Sunshine Swing comes to an electric conclusion at the Hard Rock Stadium, featuring a women’s final emblematic of the kind of power tennis fans have watched throughout the two weeks at the 2024 Miami Open.

Elena Rybakina was a win away from the Sunshine Double in 2023 after capturing the BNP Paribas Open title in the desert, and has a chance to win her first trophy in the Sunshine State after surviving a thrilling semifinal against three-time champion Victoria Azarenka. But the Kazakh will face an even more sentimental favorite in the championship match: hometown hero Danielle Collins is looking to end her career on a high note, and is making the most of her final year on tour after blitzing the field to make her first WTA 1000 final.

Who will win the 2024 Miami Open? David Kane and Stephanie Livaudais discuss the finalists in a Drop Shot Debate:

Collins has unlocked some of her best tennis since revealing 2024 will be her final season on tour, rolling into the Miami final without dropping a set.

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DK's Pick: Danielle Collins

KANE: Danielle Rose Collins proved she was more than a meme long ago, morphing from a college standout at the University of Virginia—for whom she twice took home the NCAA Championships title—into a steadfast professional through an unforgettable decade on the Hologic WTA Tour, peaking at No. 7 in the rankings after reaching her first Grand Slam singles final at the Australian Open.

But the notoriously competitive 30-year-old appears intent on saving her best for last. Not content to coast through the final chapter of her career, Collins has never looked more comfortable—on or off the court—since announcing she would hang up her racquets at the end of this season. And that comfort has unlocked some incredible tennis, particular in her home event at the Hard Rock Stadium.

Collins planted three seeds en route to the final, including former No. 4 Caroline Garcia and tournament giant killer Alexandrova, to book a fifth meeting with Rybakina, who has won her last three matches against the American. Still, where the former Wimbledon champion has had to battle through five matches, Collins has rolled and from the pro-American crowd to the quick Miami courts, has every intangible behind her. With a clear finish line in sight, Collins can feel free to leave everything on the court in Saturday’s final, which will continue to make her one of the biggest threats currently across the net.

A rigid perfectionist, Rybakina has shown a remarkable ability to win without her best tennis in Miami: will it be enough to conquer Collins?

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Steph's Pick: Elena Rybakina

LIVAUDAIS: A finalist here last year, Elena Rybakina returned to Miami with question marks around her condition, having been forced to withdraw from Indian Wells due to illness. She wisely kept expectations in check during the early stages of the tournament—but it seems like the early arrival might have been a blessing in disguise for the No. 4 seed.

“I was not expecting honestly to be in the final, because I was not prepared that well for this tournament,” Rybakina told press on Thursday. “But really happy that I managed to battle through all these matches and be in the final again.”

While Rybakina may have been surprised by her level this fortnight, the signs were there that the Kazakh player could catch fire in South Florida. Before her illness, Rybakina was on a hot streak, capturing titles in Brisbane and Abu Dhabi and a run to the final in Doha. She’s also made up for any lost time on court in Miami, where she’s been pushed the distance in four of five matches—including a roller-coaster semifinal against No. 27 seed Victoria Azarenka, 6-4, 0-6, 7-6 (2).

In the final, she’s set to face an American for the third time this fortnight in Danielle Collins, having already dashed home hopes against Madison Keys, 6-3, 7-5, and Taylor Townsend, 6-3, 6-7 (3), 6-4. Rybakina’s matches against Collins have historically been long battles—so expect another three-setter—but ultimately trend in her favor, with Rybakina owning the 3-1 lead. The level-headed Kazakh seems to have all the tools to keep her cool, play a big game and diffuse high-octane Collins to lift her third WTA 1000 trophy.

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