Who will win more Grand Slams in 2025: Carlos Alcaraz or Jannik Sinner?

As we make our way toward the 2025 season—which begins Monday, December 27 with the United Cup—our writers and editors tackle the most important questions of the new year.

First question: Who will have a better season: Carlos Alcaraz or Jannik Sinner?

Scroll down past this article to read more Burning Questions on 2025.

JOEL DRUCKER: To look ahead, first look back. Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz each won two majors in 2024. They played one another three times, each on high stakes occasions—the semis of Indian Wells and Roland Garros, the finals of Beijing. All were scintillating—and Alcaraz won every time. But by year’s end, Sinner had earned eight titles, twice as many as Alcaraz. Those cumulative results were enough to make Sinner world number one in 2024.

The contrasts in style and manner make this a compelling rivalry—from Sinner’s tranquil demeanor and relentless firepower off both sides, to Alcaraz’s competitive passion and vast array of shots.

I've played great tournaments and really bad tournaments. . . . So I have to work. Thanks God I'm young, I'm still super young, so I have or I hope to have many years to get there. Carlos Alcaraz

The thinking here is that Sinner will have a better ’25. His virtually wire-to-wire success in ’24—from January in Melbourne to November at the ATP Finals and Davis Cup—demonstrated impressive sustainability. Save for the stress of the WADA appeal and a possible suspension, nothing else is clouding the Sinner radar that can preclude more such excellence. “It's going to be the same next year,” said Sinner following his win at the ATP Finals, “whatever we can catch, we take, and the rest we learn.”

For Alcaraz, the challenge is performing as consistently at other events. “This year,” Alcaraz said during the ATP Finals, “I've played great tournaments and really bad tournaments. . . . So I have to work. Thanks God I'm young, I'm still super young, so I have or I hope to have many years to get there.”

STEPHANIE LIVAUDAIS: Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz split the four Grand Slams and traded the ATP’s world No. 1 ranking between them in 2024. It will be an impressive feat if either can maintain the same level in the upcoming season, but 21-year-old Alcaraz appears better poised for success. The Spaniard has plenty of room to grow, especially mentally, and the tactical improvements to his game, namely his serve, leave him with a bigger upside.

Meanwhile Sinner has already taken his own game to stratospheric levels in 2024, and even expert coaches are struggling to find any aspect that needs improving. (Sinner himself says he wants to be “more unpredictable” on court.) But the tennis he’s playing seems to already be pushing him to his physical limits, as amid a dominant season Sinner’s chronic hip injury has often been cause for worry. And all this as the Italian’s doping case remains under appeal heading into the new season, with the possibility of a longer ban looming.

If Alcaraz can manage his calendar to avoid burnout and target consistency, I think he could find the extra gear to stay in front in their exciting rivalry.

STEVE TIGNOR: Maybe the best way to answer this question is with another question: How much better will, or can, these guys get in the near future? Each has room for improvement, but in different areas.

With Alcaraz, that area is consistency. In 2024, he went 3-0 against Sinner in their head-to-head, which shows that he may have a higher ceiling, level-wise, than his Italian rival. But he won half as many titles (eight to four), and finished 5,000 ranking points behind him. The verdict is still out on whether the 21-year-old can play his brand of free-spirited tennis without the dips in quality that have come with it so far.

Sinner’s area of improvement is surface-based. He has won 16 of his 18 titles on hard courts. Despite that history, there’s no reason why he can’t win on clay and grass as well. As an Italian, he’s familiar with red dirt, and he was one set from the Roland Garros final in 2024. As for grass, he has the serve-plus-one game for it, and he won Halle last year.

Which leads me to believe that, despite Alcaraz’s head-to-head superiority, Sinner will finish ahead of him again in 2025. Over the short span of 12 months, it seems more likely that Sinner will improve on clay and grass than it does Alcaraz will solve his consistency issues.

Stay tuned for Tuesday's question: Which new coaching partnership will make a bigger splash in 2025?