Will Jannik Sinner break through and win a Grand Slam title?

As we make our way toward the 2024 season—which begins Friday, December 29 with the United Cup—our writers and editors tackle the most important questions of the new year.

Question Eight: Will Jannik Sinner break through and win a Grand Slam title?

Scroll down past this article to read more Burning Questions on 2024.

STEVE TIGNOR: By October 2023, the race between Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz for the year-end No. 1 ranking seemed to be the only ATP story left to tell. Then Jannik Sinner happened.

Over two months, Sinner beat Alcaraz once, Djokovic twice, and Daniil Medvedev three times. He won titles in Beijing and Vienna. He was runner-up at the ATP Finals. He led Italy to its first Davis Cup since 1976. By season’s end, the 22-year-old was in the 2024 Grand Slam title conversation for real.

So, will Sinner convert? Let’s start by noting that fall surges are not like surges during the Slam season. There’s less on the line, and less urgency from the top guys. Last year, Felix Auger Aliassime won three straight fall titles. Before that, Alexander Zverev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Grigor Dimitrov made winning runs at the ATP Finals that seemed to promise much more. In 2017, Jack Sock won Bercy.

The closest parallel to Sinner’s 2023 is what Dominic Thiem did at the end of 2019. Like Sinner, Thiem won in Beijing and Vienna, and beat Djokovic on his way to a runner-up finish at the ATP Finals. Coming into 2020, he faced the same Slam-title questions that Sinner does now. He answered them by making the Australian Open final and winning the US Open.

If anything, Sinner looks better now than Thiem did then. He has more weapons, fewer weaknesses, and a deeper belief in himself against the best opponents.

I’ll say Sinner will follow in Thiem’s footsteps and win either the Australian Open or the US Open.

By October 2023, the race between Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz for the year-end No. 1 ranking seemed to be the only ATP story left to tell. Then Jannik Sinner happened.

PETER BODO: Jannik Sinner will win a Grand Slam title in 2024*

*That is, Sinner will claim his first major if No.1 Novak Djokovic starts slowing down. . . if the minute fault lines in Carlos Alcaraz’s focus expand, or his susceptibility to injury continues. . . if Holger Rune can’t learn to modulate his emotions. . . if Alexander Zeverv fails to build on his post-injury momentum. . . if Casper Ruud’s “slump” continues. . .

You get the picture. And we haven’t even touched on old ATP hands like Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas. The one thing all the aforementioned obstacles in Sinner’s path share is that, with the exception of Rune, all of them have either hoisted Grand Slam trophies or given runner-up speeches. This is a very hungry and highly motivated collection of dudes.

I know I’m punting on this, but then I’ve been down this road before with the ATP’s star-making machinery, encapsulated in the ongoing “Next Gen” campaign. When the campaign was launched, circa 2016, the intent was to identify the heir(s) to Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, et al. Zverev quickly positioned himself as the next-in-line when he won five titles including a Masters 1000 in 2017 at age 21. But Zverev remains Slam-less, if still in the hunt. And that still holds for so many of his gifted generational peers due to the log jam created by ageless Novak Djokovic.

Sinner may well win a Grand Slam singles title in 2024. His 2-2 record vs. Djokovic in 2023 is encouraging. But predicting that Sinner will bag a major is insupportable in a landscape populated by so many highly capable young players who have, thus far, been denied that honor.

MEGAN FERNANDEZ: No. Sinner hasn’t made a final, and only one semi. He isn’t yet the all-surface savant that Carlos Alcaraz is, limiting his opportunities to win his first Slam this year. And Djokovic is still too dominant in best of five.

Alcaraz, Djokovic, and Medvedev will continue to dominate the Slams. Sinner will make at least one or two semis and I think one final, joining the runner-up ranks of Matteo Berrettini, Casper Ruud, and Stefanos Tsitsipas. But he won’t break through without some serious luck from the draw. When was the last time a men’s Slam had a surprise or darkhouse finalist like Vondrousova or Krejcikova? Maybe Kyrgios qualifies, but he’s a category of one.

The fact remains that the final weekend of men’s Slams is the most exclusive club in tennis. That means Sinner would have to beat both Alcaraz and Djokovic in best-of-five to win a Slam this year.

It won’t surprise me if I’m wrong. I think Sinner will be the next first-time Slam winner. And perhaps the Olympics will tire out or distract Djokovic and Alcaraz enough to change the calculus at the US Open, where Sinner has his best chance on a fast hard court. But I’m not betting on it. Sinner will be a forza this year, but not a Slam winner until 2025.

Stay tuned for Tuesday's question: At this time next year, what are we saying about Ben Shelton?