Wimbledon Men's Semifinal Previews: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Daniil Medvedev, Novak Djokovic vs. Lorenzo Musetti

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Daniil Medvedev

Which 2023 Grand Slam semifinal between these two should we look back to for reference: The one they played at Wimbledon, or the one they played at the US Open?

The first was a straight-set blowout for Alcaraz, in which the Russian looked utterly lost as to whether he could blunt or counteract the Spaniard’s power and speed advantage. The second semi was a tactical reversal from Medvedev, as he sat back and picked Alcaraz apart at the net. This year, they’ve played once, at Indian Wells, where the Spaniard turned things back around in two sets.

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On Tuesday, Alcaraz grinned and said, not surprisingly, that he was hoping for the same result as he had on Centre Court last year. On that day, Medvedev’s deep positioning left the court wide open for him to do whatever he wanted.

What does Medvedev have to do to change that? He had an admirably honest answer on Tuesday.

“Just play better,” he said. “I have to serve better. That’s still the most important thing on grass. You serve aces, you serve on the line, you’re less in trouble, and you feel better. That’s where you can put pressure on his serve."

“It’s tough to play against him because you know whatever shot you hit, he can hit a winner from there,” Medvedev said when he was asked what’s special about Alcaraz’s game. “So you try to make his life difficult. You try to hit the shot as good as you can. Maybe he goes for it and he cannot make it.”

Asked what’s special about Medvedev’s game, Alcaraz said this:

“The most difficult thing about facing Daniil, or the most special thing about him, is he can reach every ball,” Alcaraz said. “He is like a wall. Every ball bounce back. I feel like I can hit an unbelievable shot, the ball is going to bounce back. Is difficult to play thinking about that.”

So we have one guy who can hit a winner from anywhere, and another who can get every ball back. Something has to give, right?

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Emotionally and tactically, Medvedev is the player with the question marks around him. Will he stay far back on his return? It worked for him at the US Open, but not here, in 2023. Will he try to surprise Alcaraz by takin the initiative from the baseline? That has worked well for Medvedev against Jannik Sinner. As for Medvedev’s mental state, how will he rebound after a cathartic five-set win over Sinner in the quarters? Does he have another one in him, or will he be drained? Alcaraz, by comparison, should feel fairly rested after a more routine win over Tommy Paul.

It may take a while, it may see-saw from one set to the next, it may be ugly at times, but I’ll take Alcaraz to do what he’s been doing this summer: Find a way in the end. Winner: Alcaraz

Novak Djokovic vs. Lorenzo Musetti

“I expect a big, big fight,” Musetti said when he was asked about the prospect of facing Djokovic in his first Grand Slam semifinal. “I’m an ambitious guy and I like to be challenged.”

Musetti was as good as his word on Wednesday, when he beat the higher-ranked Taylor Fritz in five sets in the quarterfinals. The favored Fritz won the first set, but Musetti rose to the challenge by winning the next two. Fritz answered in the fourth, only to see Musetti elevate his game and roll through the first five games of the fifth.

Read More: Lorenzo Musetti edges Taylor Fritz for first major semifinal in second best day of his life

The Italian, like most Italians, has been known mostly for his clay-court prowess. Before this year, he had a losing record on grass. But he always had the offensive skills and variety of spins that work on the surface. He’s improved on grass each week this summer: He made the semifinals in Stuttgart, the final at Queen’s, and now the semis at Wimbledon.

Of course, the next step up will be the biggest. Is this Slam-semi rookie ready to make a serious run at the 24-time champ?

Djokovic leads their head-to-head 5-1, but Musetti is right when he says that they’ve had “huge fights” in the past. Twice Djokovic has come back to beat him in five sets at Roland Garros. Their match in Paris last month ended at 3:00 A.M.

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We know—and more important, Musetti knows—that he can match shots with Djokovic on clay. I don’t see any reason why that would be different on grass. In both of his losses to Djokovic at Roland Garros, Musetti has been worn down in the end; depending on the weather in London on Friday, there should be less chance of that happening when the points are shorter on grass.

It seems possible that Musetti, fresh from his win over Fritz, will start quickly, while Djokovic, out of his normal rhythm after getting a walkover from Alex de Minaur in the quarters, will take some to get going. Which means it will come down to, as Musetti says, “a big, big fight.” I’ll take Djokovic in one of those, just about every time. Winner: Djokovic