Wimbledon Women's Semifinal Previews: Jasmine Paolini vs. Donna Vekic, Elena Rybakina vs. Barbora Krejcikova

The Italian and the Croatian are not unknowns. Paolini just made the final of Roland Garros, and Vekic is a former teen prodigy who has been hanging around the Top 30 for a decade now. But their presence in this semifinal is still a surprise.

Before this year, Vekic was 8-9 at Wimbledon, and, in 43 Grand Slam appearances dating back to 2013, she had never made a semi. Paolini, meanwhile, hadn’t made it past the first round in three main draws at the All England Club. Three other times she had lost in qualifying.

But the stars were aligned for both in 2024. Paolini was already having a career year, but she got some help this weekend when (1) Madison Keys was forced to retire from their fourth-round match at 5-5 in the third, and (2) Emma Navarro knocked off Coco Gauff, and then suffered a major letdown against the Italian in the next round. Vekic was aided first by Aryna Sabalenka’s withdrawal from her quarter, and then by a chance to face 123rd-ranked Lulu Sun in the quarterfinals.

Vekic (right) has the opportunity of a lifetime, while Roland Garros finalist Paolini has her second in a month.

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Now Vekic has the opportunity of a lifetime, while Paolini has her second in a month. They’ve played three times, all on hard courts, and Paolini has won twice. She has the edge n the quickness and shot-making departments, and she has played in one more major semi than her opponent. Vekic has a bigger serve and heavier ground strokes, and a little more positive history at Wimbledon.

“I think I’m moving well here,” Paolini said on Tuesday. “Today I played a really good forehand. It’s working good in this tournament, the forehand.”

“I hope it's going to help me with Donna. She’s serving well. It’s important also to return well against her I think, to make her run.”

Paolini and Vekic are both 28, which also may come as a surprise, considering how much more we’ve heard from the Croat over the years. Right now, though, it looks like Paolini is the one we’ll be seeing more of in the coming months and years. Winner: Paolini

Rybakina is 0-2 against Krejickova—but those matches happened in 2021 and 2022, neither was played on grass, and both were close.

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Elena Rybakina vs. Barbora Krejcikova

With the Top 3 seeds out, most observers believe this is the fourth-seeded Rybakina’s tournament to lose. When she thinks about who she plays next, though, the Kazakh might wonder why.

Rybakina is 0-2 against Krejickova. Granted, those matches happened in 2021 and 2022, neither was played on grass, and both were close. One of them, which came during the high Covid era in Australia, featured a 10-point tiebreaker instead of a third set. Rybakina also said it was “super windy” that day.

But the larger point remains: While Krejcikova is only ranked 32nd right now, she has the hands and all-court skills to beat anyone on any given day—she showed that when she won Roland Garros in 2021. The Czech hasn’t had nearly the same success at Wimbledon, but there’s no reason her offensive talents shouldn’t translate to grass.

Krejcikova is No. 32 right now, but she has the hands and all-court skills to beat anyone—proven by her 2021 Roland Garros title.

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“She’s a great player,” Rybakina says. “I think she has really good hands. I didn’t really [see] yet against who she played here. I think she's pretty confident…. It’s going to be tough match, for sure.”

Krejcikova has defused a couple of hard hitters, Danielle Collins and Jelena Ostapenko, in her last two matches, which should give her confidence that she can do it again on Thursday. For all of Rybakina’s success in 2024, she has been ambushed at the previous two Slams. She lost a 22-20 tiebreaker to Anna Blinkova in Australia, and went out 6-4 in the third set to a zoning Paolini at Roland Garros.

Another defeat wouldn’t come as a shock. But she has all the shots, and the experience, to keep it from happening. Winner: Rybakina

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