Wimbledon Day 5 Preview: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Frances Tiafoe, Maria Sakkari vs. Emma Raducanu, Tommy Paul vs. Alexander Bublik

Centre Court kicks off with a cracker. Alcaraz and Tiafoe have split their two previous matches. Tiafoe won, perhaps surprisingly, when they met on clay in Barcelona in 2021. Alcaraz won, a bit less surprisingly, their five-set semifinal at the US Open two years ago.

That victory helped Launch Alcaraz to his first Grand Slam title. Since then, he has remained in the sport’s stratosphere, winning Wimbledon in 2023 and Roland Garros last month. The same can’t be said for Tiafoe. Over the past year, he has split with a coach and seen his ranking fall from the Top 10 to its current No. 29.

Can you throw those recent tepid results from Tiafoe out the window for this one? We know he loves a stage; he should feel no pressure in the early going against a top-ranked guy like Alcaraz; and best-of-five may actually help him. It can take a little while for Frances to get the blood flowing and the crowd engaged. While Alcaraz is the defending champion here, the surface shouldn’t hurt Tiafoe’s likely attempt to red line his game. It was enough to get him two sets at the Open in 2022; unfortunately for him, I don’t think he can hope for more against a currently confident Alcaraz on Friday. Winner: Alcaraz

Would it be a surprise if Raducanu defeated No. 9 seed Sakkari? She beat the Greek in their only other meeting, during her 2021 US Open title run.

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Maria Sakkari vs. Emma Raducanu

The strut, the fist pumps, the determined looks to her camp, the self-assured shot-making: Where is this the rest of the year from the 135th-ranked Raducanu? The Brit won her Slam title in New York, but she has always thrived at home as well, and she did again in her somewhat surprising win over Elise Mertens on Wednesday.

Would it be a surprise if she does the same thing against the ninth-seeded Sakkari, second up on Centre, on Friday? Not so much. Raducanu beat the Greek in their only other meeting, 6-1, 6-4 during her Cinderella run at the Open three years ago. And while she tends to play better at Wimbledon, Sakkari does not. In seven tries here, she has never made it past the third round; last year she went out in her opener.

That said, Sakkari is still ranked 126 spots higher than Raducanu, and is still the better player on just about any other court. If she can get a lead, take the crowd out of it, and make Raducanu lose her newfound self-belief again, she can win. Winner: Raducanu

While Queen's Club champion Paul leads their head-to-head 3-1, Bublik has won their only meeting on grass.

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Tommy Paul vs. Alexander Bublik

This will offer an interesting contrast in athletic personas: A laid-back American jock vs. a tongue-in-cheek disruptor from Kazakhstan. You really never know what might happen in a Bublik match, or how seriously he’ll decide to take it.

That’s all part of the challenge of facing him, a challenge that gets much more difficult on grass. Bublik is 6-foot-5, with a bullet serve and wide wingspan. He won a grass-court title at Halle last year, and made the fourth round at Wimbledon. While Paul leads their head-to-head 3-1, Bublik won their only meeting on grass.

Yet it’s Paul, with his win at Queen’s, who has had the better grass tune-up season this year. He should also feel good after fighting hard to come back and beat Otto Virtanen from two sets to one down on Wednesday. It was a match that, in the past, he might not have found the mental reserves to win. He’ll need all of them again on Friday. Winner: Paul

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