Wimbledon Quarterfinal Previews: Sinner vs. Medvedev, Paolini vs. Navarro, Alcaraz vs. Paul

Jannik Sinner vs. Daniil Medvedev

“Small details makes a big difference in tennis,” Medvedev said when he was asked about Sinner’s recent, fairly meteoric rise to No. 1. “He plays better….He misses less…serves much better.”

In Sinner’s case, it really does seem to be that simple. Since last fall, he’s won more free points with his serve and made fewer unforced errors, and better results have followed. I would only add that he has also shown the confidence and mental reserves not to cave to higher-ranked players—like Novak Djokovic and Medvedev himself—in the clutch moments of big matches.

More than any other player, Medvedev has borne the brunt of Sinner’s ascension. Before they met in Beijing last October, he was 6-0 against the Italian. Less than a year later, he’s 6-5. The most recent of those meetings was a blowout 6-1, 6-2 win for Sinner at Indian Wells. But the ofter four matches were close, especially their Australian Open final, where Sinner come back from two sets down to win his first major title.

That day, Medvedev surprised Sinner by leaving his usual cagey, counterpunching baseline style behind and jumping out to an aggressive start. Will Medvedev try something similar on Tuesday? It might make sense on grass, but the slicker surface might also make it harder to take the initiative in rallies away from the bigger-hitting Sinner. Medvedev might also try to target Sinner’s forehand and make him hit as many as possible; Sinner lost his feel from that side for a period against Ben Shelton.

Last year at Wimbledon, Medvedev had no answers for another nemesis of his, Alcaraz. This time, if all else fails, he’s hoping to be inspired by the number next to Sinner’s name.

“I do think, if I’m not mistaken, I usually play better against No. 1s in the world than maybe some other guys,” Medvedev said. “Let’s see if it helps me against Jannik.” Winner: Sinner

Jasmine Paolini vs. Emma Navarro

After beating Coco Gauff on Sunday, Navarro told the Centre Court crowd, much to their approval, that the arena was now her favorite place to play in the world. Lucky her, she’ll be back there again on Tuesday to face Paolini in her first Grand Slam quarterfinal

The rapidly rising American might also consider herself lucky to be facing this opponent. Navarro is 3-0 against Paolini. All three matches were played within the last year, all three were on hard courts, and in two of them, Navarro ran away with the final set and won it 6-0.

“Emma, she plays tennis in a special way,” Paolini says. “She has so fast hand. I love how she plays tennis. It’s going to be tough.”

Paolini loves to watch Navarro, but obviously doesn’t love to play her. The Italian hits hard, and Navarro is good at absorbing pace and redirecting it in surprising ways. Paolini is also the rare opponent at this level who doesn’t have a physical advantage over the American.

But the same can said for the 5-foot-4 Italian. She also won’t have to face someone who can overpower her. She’ll have time to take her shots, including her first-rate forehand. I’m going to guess she won’t miss nearly as many as Gauff did against Navarro in the last round. Winner: Paolini

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Tommy Paul

Plenty of players talk about how much they like to watch Alcaraz. On Sunday, Paul went a step farther and talked about what a thrill it is to face him, too.

“Honestly, it’s fun to play against,” the American said of Alcaraz’s “ultra-aggressive” style. “I’m really excited for the matchup.”

It helps that Paul has also matched up surprisingly well with Alcaraz in the past. He’s 2-2 against him, and three of those meetings have gone three sets. Paul is one of the few players who can stay with Alcaraz athletically—his speed, his explosiveness, and, on the right day, his shot-making are too far below the Spaniard’s level. When they met twice on hard courts last summer, Alcaraz couldn’t have his way from the baseline the way he does against most opponents.

That was true for him against another American at this event, Frances Tiafoe, and we saw how close Alcaraz came to losing that day, before finally prevailing in five. Alcaraz also had his ups and downs against another aggressive hitter, Ugo Humbert, in his last round. Is he due for a cleaner performance, or will the peaks and valleys continue? If he does fall behind, it might not be easy for him to turn it on and leave Paul in the dust on grass.

This is the match that the 27-year-old Paul has been waiting to play, and American fans have been waiting to see him play, for his entire career. But I’m not sure he’s quite ready to win it. Winner: Alcaraz