Li Na and Francesca Schiavone will meet Saturday in the women's French Open final. We asked Peter Bodo five questions about the match:
1. Although Schiavone is the fifth seed and Li the sixth, neither player was a popular choice to make the final when the tournament began. Who is the bigger surprise?
I have to go with Schiavone on that one, but only by a hair. It would be one thing if she used last year's success as a launching pad to become a player of a different caliber, but that hasn’t happened nearly to the extent this year's success might suggest.
After Schiavone won here last year, she lost in the first round at Wimbledon and fell in the quarterfinals at the next two majors. Granted, she held her place in the rankings admirably, but there were no signs this spring on clay that she would be a major force in Paris. In the four events Schiavone played, she made the semis just once, in Brussels—where she lost to the woman she beat in last year’s Roland Garros final, Sam Stosur—and lost in the first round at Stuttgart to Agnieszka Radwanska.
Then there’s the age issue—not that Li Na is a spring chicken herself at 29—but when it comes to the “surprise” factor, who expected Schiavone to have the energy and drive at 30 to get to the French final again? You kind of expected her to savor her 2010 title, put her feet up, and gracefully play out her string.
2. Li has toppled three big hitters in a row: Kvitova, Azarenka, Sharapova. Will Schiavone's subtler game trouble her?
I’m not sure I agree that Schiavone’s game is “subtle.” It’s certainly creative, unpredictable and varied, but one of the reasons she’s done so well here in Paris is because that topspin forehand of hers has been about as subtle as a punch in the face—and that’s the feature of the defending champion’s game I think is most likely to trouble Li.
Li is listed at 5' 7", but she looks like a “small” 5' 7" to me. And under these dry, sunny conditions (although there’s a chance of serious rain on Saturday) Schiavone’s topspin is a real jack-in-the-box shot. Li could have trouble with that, for the same exact reason that Roger Federer has trouble when Rafael Nadal finds his backhand with that southpaw topspin forehand.
If Schiavone can do damage with her topspin, I expect it will be on the forehand side. Li’s backhand is rock solid, and hitting it with two hands ensures it will be firm and stable. The forehand is another issue; while it’s a fine shot, it’s the one more prone to misfire, or to break down under either physical or mental pressure.
I don’t believe Li will mind Schiavone’s attacking mindset. A classic baseliner like Li loves to have a target, to throw darts. It’s hard to imagine Schiavone volleying her way to a win against Li.
3. How much will experience play a part in this outcome—both Schiavone winning here last year and Li coming up just short in this year's Australian Open final?
I call that issue a wash, although I would give Schiavone the nod in the confidence or "pressure-resistance" department. She had a great quote after she won yesterday about how players tend to get all stressed out and wound up instead of just, well, enjoying what they’re doing.
I don’t think Schiavone was indulging in wishful thinking. She really is living in the moment, relaxed, taking it all one minute, hour, day at a time. She’s living an ongoing dream and enjoying every moment of it, and she’s mature enough to take full advantage of that. It’s a great place to be, mentally and emotionally.
Li caved to the pressure in Melbourne, but let’s face it—for a Chinese player to reach a Grand Slam final, given how late China came to the game, was huge. I think she was overwhelmed by the occasion. I just don’t see that happening here. The main reason I say that is because of the kinds of players she’s faced and beaten here. You mentioned them before—Kvitova, Azarenka and Sharapova. Kvitova was everyone’s not-so-long long shot, and the winner of the big premier event in Madrid. Azarenka has been, arguably, the best player since this year's Australian Open. And Sharapova, champion of Rome, was sizzling hot as she ripped through her section of the draw.
None of those wins were easily purchased by Li; she showed tremendous focus and poise in winning each of those matches. She’s mentally hardened. There’s always a chance that the heebee jeebees will get to her in the final again; you never know about that. But I don’t expect they will.
4. Does this final between two veterans reflect positively or negatively on the current WTA landscape?
I think it’s a positive because it reduces this theme that the WTA is the domain of 18-year old divas and their omnipresent, demanding, psycho parents. And it’s not like the older players are doing well because the level of the play has somehow declined. As they say over here, Au contraire. . .
Schiavone put her finger on it the other day when she opined that these days, older players are taking much better care of themselves and doing all sorts of things to lengthen their careers. I believe that’s true. This tournament has featured the best women’s tennis I’ve ever had the pleasure to watch. Maybe it’s coincidence, but every match I watched was won, not lost, and all the women played positively, aggressively and boldly.
5. How do you foresee this match playing out?
I believe Li will win. It’s always dangerous to pick against a player who’s riding an emotional wave, the way Schiavone is, but I’m loving what I see from Li and, frankly, prefer her game because of its classic features.
I expect that Li will be able stay in the rallies much longer than Bartoli did, and she’ll eventually force enough errors out of Schiavone to get service breaks. She’ll help her case if she can take charge of the rallies, especially when Schiavone is serving. Li can also make her own life easier if she serves well.
Li is very good at changing the direction of the ball. I think she’ll be looking for the Schiavone backhand most of the time. That she’s been in both Grand Slam finals this year is borderline astonishing, and it speaks to the quality of her game. The last piece that needs to fall into place is her confidence, her ability to handle the big occasion. I think she’ll do it Saturday and become the first Asian to win a Grand Slam title.
Peter Bodo is the author of TennisWorld and is covering the French Open from Paris.