by Pete Bodo
Yesterday, we pondered Serena Williams' future in tennis, so why not take a look today at the anti-Serena (even though the two women are friendly), Caroline Wozniacki? You know, the blonde, happy-go-lucky Dane who's been threatening to replace Kim Clijsters as the ranking "nice girl" of the WTA. Where Serena is explosive, Wozniacki is consistent. Where Serena is mercurial, Wozniacki is predictable. Where Serena is tart, Wozniacki is sweet. Where Serena is glowering, Wozniacki is sunny. Where Serena is a 13-time Grand Slam champion with no ranking to speak of, Wozniacki is the WTA's official No. 1 with no major titles to speak of.
It's especially appropriate to weigh these contrasts now because Wozniacki didn't just benefit from circumstances that enabled her to become No. 1 for a brief period; she's the defending year-end No. 1, and very well-positioned to earn that honor again. And how would it look for the WTA if she finished on top for the second year in a row while Grand Slam champions old (Li Na, Francsesca Schiavone, Serena Williams Sam Stosur) and young (Petra Kvitova) languish somewhere below?
Roughly a year ago, the conversations about Wozniacki ranged from whether or not she was a credible No. 1 (having earned that ranking without having won a single Grand Slam event) to when—or if—she actually would bag that elusive first major. Through the Grand Slam events this year, I was willing to appreciate rather than criticize Wozniacki, to give her the benefit of the doubt rather a doubtful benefit of criticism. After all, she hit No. 1 late last year at the tender age of 20. She had plenty of time to establish her Grand Slam bona fides. There was no reason to think she wouldn't break through at a major...
Or was there?
Critics spoke of her shortfall of power, her lack of a real weapon. They mentioned her so-so serve, and how hard it would be for her to hold against a fearless opponent, a Serena. They brought up the "J" word as well.
Just three years ago, Jelena Jankovic secured the year-end no. 1 ranking for 2008 in much the same way as Wozniacki but at the considerably later age of 23. Jankovic hit the summit after a long and steady climb that started in 2004, when she was first ranked inside the Top 100. Poised to consolidate her position in 2009, Jankovic played a miserable match to flame out in the fourth round at the Australian Open (l. to Marion Bartoli). It only got worse from there. She didn't win a match at either of the two big U.S. combined events (Indian Wells and Miami), and she didn't make the quarterfinals at either Roland Garros or Wimbledon. Jankovic finished 2009 at No. 8, and despite periodic stirrings has only lost traction since then. She's presently out of the Top 10, at No. 12.
Is Wozniacki headed in the same direction? It's a good and especially poignant question today, on the heels of the news that top-seeded Wozniacki lost in the third round of the Topay Pan Pacific Open to Estonia's Kaia Kanepi. Coming into the tournament, Kanepi had won exactly one main tour match since the French Open, sinking outside the Top 40. Wasn't consistency supposed to be Wozniacki's great strength, and the key to her compiling the best record in the WTA?
It's hard to fault a player who lives up to expectations, and her seeding, most of the time. But this year Wozniacki has had periodic troubles doing that. She's faltered since the clay-court season. After a disappointing Wimbledon (l. to Dominkia Cibulkova, fourth round), she retired from her second-round match at Bastad with shoulder trouble, and absorbed first round losses at Toronto and Cincinnati. She won New Haven (for the fourth time) but fell well short of threatening Serena Williams in the U.S. Open semifinals.
The loss in Tokyo is another mystery, and if Wozniacki keeps playing in fits and starts, her No. 1 ranking may be in jeopardy. Wozniacki is defending almost 3,000 ranking points (combined) in Tokyo, Beijing and at the WTA Tour Championships (she lost just one match at those three events—the tour championships final). And her lead over No. 2 Maria Sharapova and No. 3 Victoria Azarenka is barely over 3,000 points. Should Wozniacki lose that No. 1 ranking, it will substantiate the idea that she was No. 1 mainly because she showed up—an act that should not be underestimated, but also one that isn't going to get your face on a postage stamp.
I've been disappointed by Wozniacki, albeit in a pretty subtle way. Jankovic's moth-and-flame dance with the No. 1 ranking was understandable; she's a bit of a flake. But Wozniacki always seemed more solid—more reliable. Her game also is sturdier, although few women players have provided me with as much pure spectating pleasure as the fugacious Ms. Jankovic. I still believe Wozniacki has the game to win a major and prove a worthy No. 1, but I'm less convinced these days about her mind and spirit.
One of the great talents shared by almost all great players is the ability to lift their games when it's most needed, especially at Grand Slam events. In this regard, Wozniacki has been very disappointing. The best way to understand her shortcomings is to contrast them with those of two of the "surprise" Grand Slam champions who snatched up majors this year from right under Wozniacki's nose.
The first of them, Li Na, personally derailed Wozniacki at one of the two venues where she's most likely to win a major, the Australian Open. Like Jankovic in 2009, Wozniacki missed her first chance to win a major as the No. 1 player at the start of the year, although it was nothing like the mess Jankovic made of a similar challenge. Li won a well and hotly-contested match, 6-3 in the third—her second consecutive win over Wozniacki in Melbourne.
At the French Open, Daniela Hantuchova played lights out tennis to crush Wozniacki in the third round, 6-1, 6-3. You had to feel for Wozniacki, especially when Li went on to claim the title in Paris, doing what Wozniacki apparently could not—find a way and the determination to win. You had to wonder why Wozniacki was unable to muster at least slightly stiffer resistance to Hantuchova; was it just (bad) luck of the draw, or did Wozniacki's game—or mentality—somehow feed Hantuchova's fire? It's always a tough question. And it's always disconcerting to see a No. 1 and top contender get blown out at a major.
Wozniacki played a solid match againt an inspired Cibulkova in the fourth round at Wimbledon, when little more than a "solid" effort was required. Wozniacki cracked near the end and went down, 7-5 in the third. It was different from the loss to Hantuchova; Wozniacki was never in that one. But in Cibulkova, Wozniacki met exactly the type of opponent, in exactly the type of match, that a Grand Slam champion finds a way to win. I don't want to take anything away from Cibulkova, but a top player elevates her game and wins that match, eight times out of 10.
It was even worse at the U.S. Open, where Wozniacki, who had been looking strong, bowed meekly in the semis to Serena Williams, 6-2, 6-4. Wozniacki was unable to impose her game on Serena, or her character on the game. Those are things Wozniacki needs to do and, at least as far as he game goes, can do, given her heft and height (she's an easy 5' 10"). You can't underestimate Serena but you can certainly draw yet another contrast between these two—Serena is great at elevating her game, and in a way that's even harder to describe than to explain, her presence. Wozniacki, by contrast, tends to decline on the big occasion, both as a player and a force on the court.
If there's anything heartening in all this for Wozniacki fans, it's that her record in majors in 2011 was somewhat better than in 2010. Already ranked No. 4 and seemingly more poised to win her first major than to become No. 1, Wozniacki was crushed (6-4, 6-3) by Li in the fourth round of last year's Australian Open. She got two fewer games off Francesca Schiavone (who would at least go on to win the title) in the quarters of the French Open. Petra Kvitova bombarded Wozniacki, 6-2, 6-0, at Wimbledon, and the Dane failed to win a set against Vera Zvonareva in the semis of the U.S. Open.
Wozniacki's major problem isn't insoluble; she mainly needs to find a way—or is it a reason?—to kick her game into a higher gear when it most counts. This is a need she must recognize and address. Unfortunately, that mandate may call on dimensions of character she may not have (for not all players have those aspects, just look at David Ferrer or Zvonareva). Wozniacki is not really a dramatic type, nor does she seem particularly emotional. Perhaps she can have a little chat with her friend Serena about that.