Three to See, Doha Day 5: Swiatek vs. Rybakina, Ostapenko vs. Jabeur, Pegula vs. Alexandrova

Jessica Pegula vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova

Pegula is ranked 21 spots higher than Alexandrova—No. 5 to No. 26. But on this day it’s tempting to make the Russian the favorite. At 30, she’s playing some of the best sustained tennis of her career. Two weeks ago, she won a title in Linz. Two days ago, she beat No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka in a third-set tiebreaker. And almost as impressively, she followed that up 24 hours later with a win over Elise Mertens. Alexandrova has reached that rare and enviable state where you feel like you can’t lose.

How long can she stay in the zone, and keep weariness at bay?

Read More: Ekaterina Alexandrova stuns Aryna Sabalenka in world No. 1's first match since Australian Open final

Pegula and Alexandrova are the same age, and have been on tour together for more than a decade, but they’ve played just twice. Pegula won their first match, while Alexandrova won in three sets last spring in Miami. Both hit flat, drive the ball deep, attack and absorb pace with their two-handed backhands, and like to return as much, or more, than they like to serve.

It’s a toss-up, but I’ll take the higher-ranked Pegula, who has been to the final in Doha before, and who has been quietly clutch in her two matches so far this week. Winner: Pegula

Iga Swiatek vs. Elena Rybakina

There has been a fair bit of big-name carnage in Doha: No. 1 Sabalenka, No. 3 Gauff, and No. 4 Paolini are all out. That leaves Swiatek and Rybakina as the highest seeds. They were also last year’s finalists.

Swiatek won that match, as well as their most recent meeting, last month at United Cup. Overall, though, Rybakina has more than held her own, and made this into a legitimate rivalry. She leads their head-to-head 4-3, and won their only match at a major, two years ago in Australia.

Read More: “Disappointed” Elena Rybakina refuses to comment on coach Stefano Vukov's suspension

The 6-foot Rybakina has one of the game’s best serves, which comes in handy as a way to neutralize Swiatek’s biggest weapon, her return. Rybakina can also rush Swiatek’s forehand with pace from the ground.

All of which makes me wonder if Swiatek, in her close win over the similarly power-oriented Linda Noskova on Wednesday, just had the perfect practice session for this match. Winner: Swiatek

Jelena Ostapenko vs. Ons Jabeur

If you had been asked to pick a player to watch at the start of 2025, Jabeur’s name likely wouldn’t have come anywhere close to your mind. She’s 30 years old, she’s out of the Top 30 in the rankings, and she can’t stop getting injured. The magic that took her to three major finals seemed to be a thing of the past.

But here she is in February, 11-4, in her second straight quarterfinal, with a win over Zheng Qinwen earlier this week. The Tunisian is also playing at one of her homes away from home, and she seems to like facing her next opponent.

Jabeur is 4-2 against Ostapenko, and she beat her in two tight sets just last week in Abu Dhabi. You never know when that magic will vanish from her racquet again, but she seems to be in a good place in Doha, both with her game, and with the fans who come out to see her. Winner: Jabeur