WTA Finals Preview: Aryna Sabalenka shocked Iga Swiatek. Can she close Fort Worth with a win over Caroline Garcia?

HIGHLIGHTS: Sabalenka tops Swiatek in three sets, setting up showdown with Garcia

Every fan of the WTA has been trained to expect the unexpected in 2022. Ash Barty won the Australian Open and retired at 25. Iga Swiatek, who finished 2021 ranked No. 9, suddenly couldn’t lose a match, to anyone, anywhere. Elena Rybakina won Wimbledon as a 17 seed, and Ons Jabeur reached back-to-back Grand Slam finals. Much of last year’s Top 10 was replaced by a new Top 10.

That trend has continued, and maybe even accelerated, at the tour’s final event in Fort Worth this week. Two home-country favorites, Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula, who also happen to be two of the years’ most improved players, went 0-6 and won a combined total of one set (they also went 0-3 in doubles). Maria Sakkari, who didn’t qualify until her final event, went 3-0 and made the semis. Caroline Garcia, who seemed to be staggering toward the finish line and had just split with her coach, has reached the final. And Aryna Sabalenka, who had lost four times to Swiatek in 2022, beat her in the semis with a 6-1 third set.

Do the women have one more shocker in store for us to close out the year? Unfortunately, Garcia and Sabalenka would seem to be too evenly matched for either one to qualify as a surprise winner. Their head-to-head stands at 2-2, though they’ve played just once since 2018. That match happened in Cincinnati this summer, and Garcia won 6-1 in a third set.

Garcia isn’t in quite the same world-beating form she was in then. But she has been good; defusing Sakkari 6-3, 6-2 in the semis was impressive. She’s also 3-0 in finals this season. Still, as far as promising signs go, Sabalenka holds the trump card with her win over Swiatek on Sunday. I’ve been wrong in most of my predictions this week, but a Sabalenka victory at this event would be a suitable end to a season that few of us saw coming. Winner: Sabalenka