Coco Gauff solves Aryna Sabalenka for first final at WTA Finals, will face Zheng Qinwen for Riyadh title

Halloween was a trick rather than a treat for these two WTA Finals rookies. Jabeur and Pegula were somewhat surprising—to me, anyway—losers in their opening matches on Monday. Each was the higher seed, each had had a better season than her opponent, and each put herself in a position to succeed multiple times, but couldn’t close the deal. Pegula was edged in two close tiebreakers to Maria Sakkari, a woman she had beaten handily two weeks earlier. Jabeur won the first set over Aryna Sabalenka and had plenty of chances in the next two; she was up 5-3 in the second-set tiebreaker, and 4-2 in the third set. But a gritty Sabalenka wasn’t to be denied.

Which one will bounce back from a tough defeat more quickly? The winner will still be in the thick of the semifinal chase, while the loser will likely be going home early. Jabeur and Pegula played twice in 2021 and twice again in 2022. Jabeur won three of those four meetings, though Pegula did reel off a 6-0 middle set when they faced off for the title in Madrid in May.

Stylistically, they offer a clear contrast. The Tunisian is a risk-taker with a wide palette; she’s as comfortable driving flat ground strokes to the corners as she is whipping under and around the ball to create a heavily-spinning finesse shot. The American plays the percentages, relies on her depth and consistency, and has a nose for the dependable play, even if it isn’t the spectacular one.

These two should be settled in at this event now, and determined not to go down 0-2. All other things begin equal, I think Jabeur can get to places that Pegula can’t. Winner: Jabeur

After falling to Sabalenka, will Jabeur bounce back against Pegula in a rematch of May's Madrid final?

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Aryna Sabalenka vs. Maria Sakkari

Could Sabalenka or Sakkari be the WTA’s version of baseball’s Philadelphia Phillies? That team barely made it into the playoffs last month, but has torn through the post-season and is threatening to win the World Series. Sabalenka and Sakkari both had relatively disappointing 2022 seasons, and just squeezed their way into the Finals over the last couple of weeks. But they came away winners, over higher-seeded opponents, in their first matches on Monday. Now one of them, with a victory on Wednesday, will have an inside track to the semifinals in this group.

Sabalenka leads her head-to-head with Sakkari 4-2. From 2019 to early 2021, she won four straight matches over the Greek. But Sakkari broke that streak in their most recent encounter, at last year’s WTA Finals in Guadalajara, in a tight and intense three-setter that featured two tiebreakers. They haven’t played in 2022.

There’s no reason we shouldn’t expect a repeat of that round-robin match from 12 months ago. Both of these women played well on Monday; more important, they competed well when it mattered, something that has eluded them for much of this year. Both will attack whenever they have a chance; Sabalenka is the bigger raw hitter, while Sakkari is the better mover and all-courter. If she’s on her game, Sabalenka’s first-strike edge may make the (slight) difference. Winner: Sabalenka

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