WTA Rome Preview: Are Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka destined to duel for a third straight time?

WATCH: Aryna Sabalenka rebounded from a defeat in the Stuttgart final to outlast Iga Swiatek in Madrid.

When it comes to the women in Rome, the top headline is clear: The WTA’s No. 1 and No. 2 players, Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka, are both in the field, and it’s possible we could see their third meeting in as many events. But that’s a hope for the future. For now, we can be happy with another piece of news. Ons Jabeur, who reached the final here a year ago, is back from her latest bout with injury. That means, with the exception of Belinda Bencic and Petra Kvitova, the tour’s Top 15 is present and accounted for, and ready to go at the Foro Italico.

Is there anyone among them who can keep Swiatek-Sabalenka III from happening? Here’s a look at the draw.

First Quarter

Anyone who believes Swiatek’s loss in the Madrid final is a sign of vulnerability should probably wait a couple of weeks. Rome is when things tend to click for her. She’s the two-time defending champion, she has lost one set in her last 12 matches here, and she won the 2021 final over Karolina Pliskova 6-0, 6-0. If she gets on another roll on these courts, it will probably be harder for Sabalenka or anyone else to stop her.

Swiatek won’t face any obvious obstacles until the quarters, when she’s slated to play seventh-seeded Elena Rybakina. On hard courts, that would be an obvious problem; Rybakina has beaten Swiatek twice on that surface this season. But she has had a noticeable dip since switching to clay, making early exits in Stuttgart and Madrid. Rybakina could face a recently resurgent Maria Sakkari in the round of 16 in Rome.

• First-round match to watch: Anett Kontaveit vs. Alycia Parks
• Potential third-round match to watch: Sakkari vs. Bianca Andreescu

Semifinalist: Swiatek

Second Quarter

Jabeur hasn’t had the follow-up to her breakthrough 2022 that she was hoping for. Just when she had recovered from an early-season injury and won a title in Charleston, she strained her calf in Stuttgart and couldn’t defend her title in Madrid.

What can we expect from the Tunisian, who made the final in Rome last year? Will she need time ramp up her game again? She won’t have much of it, is so. Jabeur may face a slowly improving Paula Badosa in the second round.

• Also here: Daria Kasatkina, Barbora Krejcikova, Jelena Ostapenko, and home-fan favorite Martina Trevisan
• Potential second-round match to watch: Jabeur vs. Badosa

Semifinalist: Krejcikova

Third Quarter

Doubles partners Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff are the two highest seeds in this section. Each is a Top 5 player, but neither has had a standout result for a while. Pegula has been steady this season, but remains without a title. Gauff, who is without a coach at the moment, is coming off three straight second-round losses, and a 6-3, 6-0 blowout defeat to Badosa in Madrid. If one of them is going to make the semis, it would seem more likely to be Pegula.

• Question Mark: Karolina Pliskova. The 31-year-old has had a middling season, but she won the title in Rome in 2019 and made the final in 2020 and 2021.
• Potential third-round match to watch: Pliskova vs. Zheng Qinwen

Semifinalist: Pliskova

Fourth Quarter

Sabalenka made a statement with her win over Swiatek in Madrid. Is she ready to make another, or, with Paris on the horizon, is a letdown in order in Rome? She hasn’t had many off weeks over the last 12 months, and right now she seems to be playing too well not to make a run, even if she’s not entirely focused on this event.

• Also here: Caroline Garcia, Victoria Azarenka, Madison Keys, and Sloane Stephens, who is coming off a title at a WTA 125 event in France last week.

Semifinalist: Sabalenka

Semifinals: Swiatek d. Krejcikova; Sabalenka d. Pliskova

Final: Swiatek d. Sabalenka