We like to say that certain tournaments on certain occasions are wide open, that there are no clear-cut favorites or safe bets. But usually anything can’t happen. Usually there’s a player—his name might be Roger Federer—who at least qualifies as the default choice to hold up the champion’s trophy in the end. But I don’t think we can say that for the ATP’s year-ending World Tour Finals, which makes its London debut on Sunday. The long, winding, always-surprising 2009 season has left us with eight—OK, maybe seven; OK, maybe six—guys with legitimate shots at winning the year’s last and most lucrative title.
Each of them stands at some kind of crossroads. The world No. 1 hasn’t had much juice in his last two matches. The guy with all the momentum might be gassed. The guy who has been gassed might be motivated to back up his breakthrough Slam win. The home favorite is still a question mark at tournaments of this magnitude. The player with the lowest ranking, who backed in as an alternate, might have the most favorable draw of anyone.
All of this is to be welcomed, and all of it is as it should be in a draw that bans anyone outside of the Top 10. There’s no easing into the event and finding your form here. All of this also seems appropriate for a tournament with these three particular initials. What the heck is going to happen in London? No, WTF is going to happen in London.
Group A
Roger Federer, Andy Murray, Fernando Verdasco, Juan Martin del Potro
This is what we get to wind up the 11-month season? Group A and Group B? The ATP has taken bland to new heights when it comes to naming its fearsome year-end foursomes. What happened to Group Awesome and Group Superb? Too wrestling, I guess.
Group A is nominally Federer’s section to lose, though he's vulnerable to both Murray and del Potro. Which Federer will show up? Will he have the energy and hunger to lift himself out of his Paris doldrums? I can see three reasons why he will. (1) He’s already come out of deeper doldrums this season and recaptured every bit of his best form. (2) A four-time winner and one-time runner-up, Federer, like regular WTF champ Pete Sampras before him, is motivated by the presence of his closest competitors. And like anyone else, he’s comfortable playing guys he’s steamrolled on multiple occasions in the past. (3) Finally, as he said afterward, Federer didn’t play all that poorly in Paris in the first place. He lacked initiative and pop on his strokes, but Julien Benneteau took the match to him in front of his home crowd.
Speaking of which, how will Andy Murray hold up in front of his own countrymen? He has never seemed overly awed by the atmosphere at Wimbledon, though I did feel he was more agitated and tentative than normal by the time the semis came around this year. Of course, the WTF is not Wimbledon. Maybe the not-quite-insane level of pressure that Murray will feel next week will help him without making him tight. He’s beaten Federer and del Potro this year, and while he lost to Verdasco in Australia, I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance of that.
Next question: Which del Potro will show up? All I’m asking for now is that he lose a match without retiring first, which is how he’s gone out in his last two events. Does the big man wish he were already on a beach, away from all of his new fans and new expectations? Or does he want to make us remember he’s the U.S. Open champ and leave one last stamp on his breakout season? Either way, I’m ready to see that monster forehand get revved up again.
Semifinalists: Federer, Murray
Group B
Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Nikolay Davydenko, Robin Soderling
B is for beta male, right? That’s hardly the case with Djokovic at the moment. The defending WTF champion is riding a two-tournament win streak, one that includes wins over Federer and Nadal. Will fatigue, be it mental or physical, do him in? Djokovic himself has said that he'll need to find some energy for one last push. But I think he’s relishing his return to world-beating form—that vein-straining celebration in Paris, anyone?—too much to let it get away from him so easily in London. The draw is also generally favorable to Djokovic. He outclassed Nadal last week, he’s beaten Soderling twice this fall, and he lost a third-set tiebreaker to Davydenko in Shanghai last month. Most important, Djokovic has played his best tennis of the season in the last two months, most of it indoors. After last year he knows he can survive the Top 8 at this event.
On paper, it looks grim for Nadal. He’s lost to all three of these guys the last time he’s played them, and he’s struggled just to stay in matches with the world’s best competition since his knee injury and his parents' divorce in the spring. When he gets down early these days, he seems to get discouraged more easily than he did in the past. At the same time, few picked Rafa to win the Aussie Open at the start of 2009; he has a habit of coming up with his best stuff just when you think all is lost. Still, he's never done it at this event, where he has yet to reach a final. And while a run to the title match could give Nadal his No. 1 ranking back—how is that possible?—his priority right now is being ready for the Davis Cup final the following weekend.
The guy with the best draw might be the guy who wasn’t supposed to be here, Robin Soderling. The Sod, ranked No. 9 but upgraded when Andy Roddick pulled out, can beat Nadal, as we know; he took a 6-1 set from Djokovic in Paris; and he has developed a bizarre hex on Davydenko over the last three years, winning five of their last six matches. He also likes to play indoors. Is this destined to be the Week of the Sod?
Like I said, it's WTF time.
Semifinalists: Djokovic, Soderling
Semifinals: Djokovic. d. Federer; Murray d. Soderling
Final: Djokovic d. Murray
Enjoy the last tournament for a couple of months. It should have more than it's share of twists and turns. The opening matches are on Tennis Channel live starting Sunday at 7:30 A.M. EST.