2020 US Open Men's Preview: Is Djokovic the overwhelming favorite?

Editor's Note: Novak Djokovic just won his 80th career title—and completed a sweep of the ATP Masters 1000 tournaments for a second time—with a 1-6, 6-3, 6-4 win over Milos Raonic at the Western & Southern Open (normally held in Cincinnati, but staged in New York City this year due to COVID-19). The victory gives Djokovic 35 career ATP Masters 1000 titles, tying him with Rafael Nadal for most all time. On top of that, the Serb is now 23-0 in 2020.

The result begs the next question: will Djokovic be one Grand Slam title closer to Nadal in two weeks' time? He's an overwhelming favorite at the upcoming US Open, held in the very same venue as he just won in, writes Steve Tignor in his men's preview below.

You lose a lot when you lose Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal from a major championship. Most of all, you lose major titles: 39 of them, to be exact. That leaves Novak Djokovic with 17, Andy Murray with three, Marin Cilic with one, and the other 125 players in the US Open men’s draw with a combined total of zero.

Does this make Djokovic the overwhelming favorite to get No. 18? Or does it make this event our best chance of seeing someone new hold up the winner’s trophy? Let’s take a look at the draw. (To view the US Open draws, visit our men's tournament page here, and our women's tournament page here.)

Novak Djokovic is on a 24-match winning streak heading into Friday's Western & Southern Open semifinals. (Getty Images)

For someone who hadn’t played a match in six months, Djokovic has looked pretty good so far in New York, and his stiff neck seemed a little less stiff by the end of the week. Next week he may also benefit from a shift in courts—he’ll leave the fast Grandstand behind for the reportedly slower surface in Arthur Ashe Stadium. The three-time US Open champ has to feel like this is a golden opportunity for him to sneak in a Slam while Federer and Nadal are away. A win in New York, and he’ll be one behind Rafa with 18.

Looking at his draw, there are no obvious obstacles awaiting him. He starts against Damir Dzumhur, and the first seed he could face is Jan-Lennard Struff, who he beat in straight sets this week. There are three big-serving Americans in this quarter—John Isner, Taylor Fritz and Reilly Opelka—but they’re all in the other half. That’s also true of No. 12 seed Denis Shapovalov and No. 26 Filip Krajinovic.

First-round matches to watch: Opelka vs. David Goffin; Struff vs. Pedro Martinez (I’m assuming that’s not the former Boston Red Sox pitcher)

Semifinalist: Djokovic

Stefanos Tsitsipas' best result at a major so far was reaching the 2019 Australian Open semifinals. (Getty Images)

The Next Gen—are we still calling them that?—get a quarter of their own. The top two seeds here are No. 4 Stefanos Tsitsipas and No. 5 Alexander Zverev. Tsitsipas, who is in the semis at the Western and Southern Open, has looked better than Zverev, who exited to Andy Murray in three sets. But their draws at the Open look equally manageable. Tsitsipas starts against Albert Ramos-Viñolas, and could face Borna Coric in the third round. Zverev starts against 2017 finalist Kevin Anderson, and Adrian Mannarino is the first seed he could face.

As far as potential fourth-round opponents go, Zverev may have the tougher one in Diego Schwartzman. Either way, this relatively nondescript section offers the Greek and the German an ideal chance to make their first US Open semifinal.

Player to watch: 19-year-old U.S. wild card Brandon Nakashima. He could play Zverev in the second round.

Semifinalist: Tsitsipas

Daniil Medvedev reached the final in Flushing Meadows last year before falling in five sets to Nadal. (Getty Images)

Can Daniil Medvedev win in New York without using the crowd as his foil? The Russian reached the final last year, but he’ll have to go it alone this time around. After a quiet summer, Medvedev looked like his old self this week, before falling in three sets to Roberto Bautista Agut. He should like his Open draw, too. He’ll start against Federico Delbonis, and the other seeds here are Guido Pella (who is currently in quarantine), Nikoloz Basilashvili, Grigor Dimitrov, Andrey Rublev, Benoit Paire, Casper Ruud and No. 6 Matteo Berrettini, who reached the semis last year.

Player to watch: Rublev. The still-young Russian made the quarters at the Open in 2017, and has seemed to be on the verge of breaking back through for most of the past year.

First-round matches to watch: Dimitrov vs. Tommy Paul; Frances Tiafoe vs. Andreas Seppi

Semifinalist: Medvedev

Dominic Thiem reached his third major final—and first outside of Paris—in Melbourne this year. (Getty Images)

What should we make of Dominic Thiem? Theoretically, this should be the chance he’s been waiting for. No Roger and no Rafa means Thiem is the No. 2 seed at a Slam for the first time, and his busy summer of exhibitions appeared to leave him primed for a strong return to the tour. But then he came to New York and laid an egg, losing to Krajinovic in a one-sided straight-setter. Thiem was late to everything in that match, so he should be happy with the move to the slower show courts at the Open. He’ll start against Jaume Munar, and could meet Cilic in the third round.

Player to watch: Milos Raonic. The Canadian has a habit of starting seasons well, and he has restarted well so far in 2020, making the semifinals at the Western and Southern Open. Next week, he could face No. 8 seed Roberto Bautista Agut, also in the W&S semis, in the third round.

First-round matches to watch: Bautista Agut vs. Tennys Sandgren; Jannik Sinner vs. Karen Khachanov

Semifinalist: Raonic

Semifinals: Djokovic d. Tsitsipas; Raonic d. Medvedev