AO women's draw: Osaka, Serena, Halep, Andreescu all in bottom half

There’s plenty to unpack from the Australian Open women’s draw as the tennis world patiently awaits which storylines will unfold in the upcoming fortnight. How difficult is Sofia Kenin's road to a title defense?  Will another first-time major winner break through? Is this the moment when Serena Williams finally ties Margaret Court?

One player who should have her hands full to open proceedings is the 2019 champion, Naomi Osaka, after the No. 3 seed drew Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. The Russian is ranked No. 39 and has reached the quarterfinals at Melbourne Park in three of the past four years. The two are tied 1-1 in their head-to-head series, with Osaka winning their most recent encounter at 2019 Osaka.

Osaka is in a bottom half full of Grand Slam conquerors. Her section, the third quarter, could see a pair of multi-Slam winners face off in the third round should No. 14 seed Garbine Muguruza, last year’s runner-up, and No. 23 seed Angelique Kerber, the 2016 titlist, progress. Both are potential round-of-16 opponents for Osaka.

Getty Images

Also in the Japanese’s quarter is No. 8 seed Bianca Andreescu, who hasn’t appeared at a tournament since the 2019 WTA Finals and won the last major match she played when she defeated Serena for the 2019 US Open crown. Andreescu, opening with lucky loser Mihaela Buzarnescu, has plenty of challengers to fend off in her return. Possible foes include the winner of Tsvetana Pironkova and Hsieh Su-wei in the second round, Venus Williams or No. 30 seed Wang Qiang in the third round and Czechs Petra Kvitova, the No. 9 seed, or Marketa Vondrousova, the No. 19 seed, in the fourth round.

Serena’s continued chase for major No. 24 begins with Laura Siegemund. It’s difficult not to look ahead at what may stand in front of the American as a fourth-round hurdle, as No. 7 seed Aryna Sabalenka is her projected opponent. Sabalenka saw her 15-match win streak ended by Kaia Kanepi on Monday and has advanced to the second week of a major in singles just once before despite her abilities.

Should Serena and Sabalenka meet, the winner could potentially get No. 2 seed Simona Halep (faces wild card Lizette Cabrera in round one) or reigning Roland Garros champion Iga Swiatek (faces Arantxa Rus in round one) in the final eight. Halep could get her shot at redemption in the fourth round versus Swiatek after losing to the Pole in the same stage at Roland Garros last October.

Let’s not forget about world No. 1 Ashleigh Barty or the defending champion, No. 4 seed Kenin, the leaders of their respective top half quarters. Barty, whose quest to end a 42-year-old drought for a home champion was stopped by Kenin in last year’s semifinals, gets Danka Kovinic to kick off her campaign. At the bottom of Barty’s quarter, a pair of former semifinalists—No. 6 seed Karolina Pliskova and Danielle Collins—could square off in round two for the second time in as many weeks. On Wednesday, Collins knocked out Pliskova in two tiebreakers at the Yarra Valley Classic.

Getty Images

Kenin’s title defense commences with wild card Maddison Inglis, but a hard-hitting matchup with the in-form Kanepi could transpire in the second round. Countrywoman Jennifer Brady, seeded No. 22, and No. 13 seed Johanna Konta, a semifinalist five years ago, are among fourth-round possibilities. Should Kenin get back to the quarterfinal juncture, several names could conceivably get through to face her.

Two-time champion Victoria Azarenka, the No. 12 seed, squares off against Jessica Pegula for the right to play a wild card: 2011 US Open champion Sam Stosur or Destanee Aiava. Fifth seed Elina Svitolina takes on Marie Bouzkova, with Coco Gauff looming as a second-round prospect. Gauff knocked out Venus and Osaka on her way to the round of 16 a year ago. Two players who dealt with the hard quarantine, No. 26 seed Yulia Putintseva and Sloane Stephens, are among the intriguing opening rounds to watch.