Three to See, US Open Day 2: Jelena Ostapenko and Naomi Osaka face off in first round

Jelena Ostapenko vs. Naomi Osaka

If anyone has a strong opinion about who’s going to win this one, or how it’s going to go from one set to the next, you’re a braver prognosticator than I am.

Osaka says she and Ostapenko are “polar opposites.” Personality-wise, there may be some truth to that; Osaka generally keeps her feelings in, while Ostapenko generally doesn’t. As players, though, they have a lot in common. Both are Grand Slam champions, and are both capable of dominating any opponent on any day. When they connect on a ball, it doesn’t come back. But they’re also highly capable of doing the opposite. They can lose to just about anyone, anywhere, anytime. Neither plays with much margin, or wastes time settling for rally balls or building points.

Their ups and downs have been on glaring display this summer. At Roland Garros in May, Osaka nearly beat Iga Swiatek; in Cincinnati two weeks ago, she lost in the qualies to 59th-ranked Ashlyn Krueger. Ostapenko, meanwhile, made the quarterfinals at Wimbledon, then turned around in Toronto and lost to 48th-ranked Taylor Townsend 6-2, 6-2.

Making this matchup even more difficult to predict is the fact that we’ve almost never seen it before. Osaka, 26, and Ostapenko, 27, despite many years on tour together, have met just once, back in 2016 at Roland Garros. While Ostapenko would win RG the following year, it was Osaka who prevailed in two close sets that day.

Since I have to choose, I’ll say the rematch will go the other way. Ostapenko hasn’t had a blazing summer, but she has 13 more wins on the season than Osaka, which should make her just a little more sure of herself when they meet in Louis Armstrong Stadium. Winner: Ostapenko

Jannik Sinner vs. Mackenzie McDonald

Sinner is the No. 1 seed, but he’s also the No. 1 question mark on the men’s side. Two questions marks, actually: (1) How will the revelation of his positive drug tests affect his mindset? (2) How will he be received by the US Open crowd?

I don’t think Sinner will become a villain in fans’ eyes in New York; he comes across as too nice a guy. But there may be a little more of an edge to his opening-round afternoon match in Ashe, because he’s playing an American.

Sinner, rightfully, sounded worried about his reputation going forward, and admitted that he feels sting of having the failed tests revealed.

“Obviously, coming out of this notification, it might change a couple of things, but whoever knows me very well knows that I would never do something that goes against the rules,” he said.

At the same time, he sounded happy to have the ordeal behind him, which may let him play a little more freely.

“Of course, it’s not ideal before a Grand Slam….just obviously a relief for myself having this result. And, yeah, so it’s just good to be back here.”

Putting that drama aside, the history between these two says it should be a competitive match. Sinner is 3-0 against McDonald, but two of those matches have gone three sets, and their final on hard courts in D.C. three years ago went down to the wire. Sinner is a big server and power player, but McDonald, with his strong two-handed backhand, returns and absorbs pace well. Winner: Sinner

Tommy Paul vs. Lorenzo Sonego

What does the third-highest-ranked American man have to do to get a break from the US Open draw gods? They didn’t do Tommy Paul any favors this year. His first-round opponent, Lorenzo Sonego, may only be ranked 58th at the moment, but he won’t need any ramp-up time for this first-round match. The Italian just won a title in Winston-Salem without dropping a set. In the semis and final, he beat David Goffin and Alex Michelsen, 6-2, 6-2 and 6-0, 6-3, respectively. Paul, meanwhile, has been in recovery mode after taking home a bronze in men’s doubles at the Olympics. He went 1-2 in Toronto and Cincinnati, and lost his last match to another Italian, Flavio Cobolli.

Should we have this nightcap match in Armstrong on upset alert? Paul and Sonego don’t have much of a meaningful record against each other. They’ve played twice, both times in 2021, and each won once—Paul won on indoor hard courts in Rotterdam, Sonego won on outdoor hard courts in Cincinnati. As far as who might have an advantage at the Open, Paul will obviously have the crowd, but if Armstrong is playing fast, the advantage might go to Sonego and his howitzer forehand.

Still, Paul should have recovered from the Games by now, and it’s always possible that Sonego will be worn down, rather than energized, by his title run down South. Winner: Paul