Pondering this weekend’s Davis Cup final, the last professional tennis event of 2006, my first thought is: Is this the end of the same season where Marcos Baghdatis made his breakthrough run at the Australian Open? In front of his homies from Cyprus, in the rain and all that? That was this year? Let me look that up. Yep, 2006, it says so on the ITF website. Unbelievable. An entire major league baseball season, too long in itself, came and went during that time, with five months to spare. The idea that tennis should “shorten the season” sounds faintly ridiculous at this point; the word just doesn’t apply. Baghdatis’ run was more like a lifetime ago. No wonder Boris Becker said you have to measure tennis players’ careers in dog years.
Still, there’s a connection between Baghdatis in Melbourne and the upcoming tie between Russia and Argentina, and it provides one of the weekend’s storylines. In the semifinals in Australia, Baghdatis was down two sets to love to David Nalbandian. By all appearances, the Cyprus kid’s magic was used up, and Nalbo, a perennial Top Tenner with no major titles (and surprisingly few titles of any sort), was ready to take his rightful place in a Slam final for the first time in four years. Two months earlier, Nalbandian had broken through to win his biggest title to date, the Tennis Masters Cup, and ended one of Roger Federer’s many win streaks in the process. Now, just when Nalbandian looked like he would get another shot at Federer for an even bigger prize, he blinked. In one of the best matches of the year, Baghdatis came back to win the final three sets, the last one after being down 2-4.
Nalbandian went on to have a solid year, including another Slam semifinal appearance, at Roland Garros (where he lost to Federer after cruising through the first set). But his most impressive performance has been as the anchor of Argentina’s Davis Cup team. He’s 6-1 this year, including two wins in key doubles matches (Nalbandian is 18-3 in Davis Cup singles and doubles for his career). Rather than the testy, sometimes-hesitant player who can’t quite rise to the occasion who we see most of the year, Nalbandian turns flat-out fierce when he competes for his country. In the process, he’s led Argentina to its first Cup final since 1981, the peak of the Vilas-Clerc era.
Now David and Co. go up against their collective Goliath in the form of the Russians, who are on their home court in Moscow where they’ve won eight straight ties dating back to 1999. The teams have played twice in recent years—Russia beat Argentina 3-2 at home in 2002 on their way to the title, the Argentines blanked them 5-0 in Buenos Aires in 2003. This is the logical rubber match for two teams that have been Davis Cup contenders for most of the decade. Just as intriguing are the individual subplots among the singles players. Nalbandian faces what may be his defining moment—just how much grit and resourcefulness lies beneath David’s smooth-stroking surface? Marat Safin, another guy who typically brings his best stuff for his country, will try to salvage one more disappointing, frustrating, gloomy season and live up to his colossal talent, perhaps for the final time. His teammate Nikolay Davydenko will look to cap a career year by showing us he can win when it counts. And Juan-Ignacio Chela, Argentina’s surprise No. 2? Well, not everyone gets to have a storyline. Let’s say he’ll give it his best.
The lineups are made. The medium-fast carpet surface—the same one that Safin and Davydenko played on in the final of the Kremlin Cup this fall—has been laid. The draws are out. Argentina’s No. 1 fan, the excitable Diego Maradona, is in town and the Russians are already telling him to shut up. Nalbandian, testy to the end, has been arguing with his coach. Hawk-Eye is going unlimited this weekend, so the players will be able to challenge every last call if they so desire. Finally, both teams know that it isn’t easy to make a Davis Cup final, so the time is now. Should be fun, right? Here are my predictions for what’s going to happen, assuming there won’t be any substitutions (though they’re not unlikely considering that big-hitters Dmitry Tursunov and Acasuso are waiting in the wings), and with the realization that two of the scheduled singles matches are virtual toss-ups on paper.
First rubber: Nikolay Davydenko (RUS) vs. Juan-Ignacio Chela (ARG)
The Argentines chose Chela over José Acasuso, who beat Lleyton Hewitt in the semifinals, in part because Chela's 5-0 against Davydenko (wow, didn’t know that, did you?) Their last two matches have been on hard courts, including a three-setter in Cincinnati this year. But this is Davydenko’s chance to prove to the home fans that his no-show in the semifinals against the U.S. was a fluke, and that his stellar 2006 wasn’t. The newlywed even has his swagger on: He said today that Chela was picked “because they know there's no way Acasuso or [Agustin] Calleri could beat me on this surface.” While he's had a long year and still tends to tighten up when he’s ahead, Davydenko's ready for this one and will win in four sets.
