Surprises in Shanghai?

On Sunday the women reached their Asian swing peak when No. 1 Victoria Azarenka beat No. 2. Maria Sharapova at the mandatory event in Beijing. This week the men catch up at the mandatory Masters down the road in Shanghai, where Nos. 1, 2, and 3, Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, and Andy Murray, are all in the draw.

The top two, Federer and Djokovic, begin their chase for the year-end No. 1 spot here as well, though that’s off to something off a slow, and scary, start. As most of you must know, Federer was the subject of a death threat as he arrived in Shanghai last week. Here’s hoping he’s safe, obviously, and that his concentration isn’t too shaken when he gets out on the court.

On that unfortunate note, I’ll take a look at how the next-to-last Masters draw might shake out. As usual when the players are in Asia, they’re already underway by the time I've begun my Monday preview.

First Quarter

Federer may be unsettled to start, and he'll come in with some rust on his game. He hasn’t played since Switzerland’s Davis Cup tie the week after the U.S. Open. The upside is that, as long as he resembles his normal self, his draw should be manageable. He’ll start with the winner of a first-round match between a qualifier, Lu, and a wild card, Zhang. The closest seed to Federer is Stan Wawrinka, who is, you might think, theoretically due to beat his countryman again one of these days—he’s 1-13, and his one win came in 2009. Things look even better for Federer on the other side of this section. The three top-ranked players there, Monaco, Verdasco, and Cilic, have combined to lose all 13 of their matches against him.

Player who did surprisingly well here in 2010: Monaco, who reached the semis.

Player making a surprise move recently: Martin Klizan, who plays Cilic on Tuesday

Semifinalist: Federer

Second Quarter

Andy Murray says he’s still recovering, to some degree, from his dizzying summer wins at the Olympics and the U.S. Open. But he had a respectable comeback week in Tokyo; losing in a third-set tiebreaker to Raonic in the semis is hardly a shock or a disgrace. Either way, he’ll start this tournament with a weird and potentially tricky opponent—Murray plays the winner of Florian Mayer and Bernard Tomic. The Scot should feel comfortable in Shanghai, where he’s the two-time defending champion.

This quarter has an interesting mix of styles in general, from the flaky flash of Tomic, Dolgopolov, and Gasquet, to the twin towers second-round match between Isner and Kevin Anderson, to a first-round battle of 2004 between Lleyton Hewitt and Radek Stepanek.

First-round matches to watch: Tomic-Mayer, Hewitt-Stepanek

Already out: Brian Baker, who qualified before losing badly to Richard Gasquet

Sleeper: Gasquet. A third-round face-off with Isner is a possibility. It feels like Gasquet is due for a big win. Then again, it kind of always feels that way.

Semifinalist: Murray

Third Quarter

This is the most obviously competitive quarter. The top two seeds are No. 4 Tomas Berdych and No. 5 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Jo has had a mostly good fall, winning in Metz and reaching the final this weekend in Beijing, though he played a mostly awful final hour against Djokovic when he got there. He’ll start with countryman Benoit Paire, who continues to make inroads; he beat Philipp Petzschner in an opening-round Battle of the Fragile. Berdych starts with Andreas Seppi.

Just as interesting are the two next-highest seeds in the quarter, Kei Nishikori and Milos Raonic, relative youngsters who just played each other in the Tokyo final. Will that be a springboard for either of them? We’ll be expecting bigger things from both, now and especially in 2013. Nishikori, a semifinalist here last year, opens against a wild card from China, Di Wu; Raonic starts with a qualifier, Marinko Matosevic of Australia. Later, Nishikori might get the man he beat in the Tokyo quarters last week, Berdych, while Raonic could have a re-match of his Olympic epic with Tsonga. Yes, there are third-set tiebreakers in Shanghai.

Hard to call second-rounder: Nishikori vs. Querrey

Semifinalist: Tsonga

Fourth Quarter

Novak Djokovic is at the bottom of the draw, but he feels like the favorite coming in. He won in vintage commanding style in Beijing this past week, and he’s motivated by the chance to finish the year No. 1. The Serb has a solid lead in the points race at the moment, and his rival for the top spot, Federer, has three titles to defend once the tour gets back to Europe. Djokovic, though he was under the weather last week, appears to be finishing 2012 in better form than he did in his wounded and burned out last months of 2011. He begins, intriguingly, against Grigor Dimitrov. The two have never played.

Also here: Janko Tipsarevic; Tommy Haas, who snuck out a three-setter today over No. 9 seed Nicolas Almagro; the returning Tommy Robredo; Philipp Kohlschreiber, who beat Ryan Harrison in his first round. All in all, it’s a winnable section for Djokovic, who has made himself virtually immune from early upsets.

Is that a jinx or what?

Semifinalist: Djokovic

Semifinals: Murray d. Federer; Djokovic d. Tsonga

Final: Djokovic d. Murray