Jakub Mensik, Miami champion, was going to pull out of the tournament an hour before his first match

What she said is true, and it has been true for just about the entirety of the 33-year-old’s career. With her long lefty ground strokes, Kvitova can hit anyone off the court on any given day. It’s just that we haven’t—or at least I haven’t—heard the modest and unassuming Czech say it out loud very often.

Kvitova clearly believes in herself right now, with good reason. After coming to Miami for a decade and a half, she’s into her first final at the tournament. True, she hasn’t played anyone in the Top 15 to get there this year, but this run isn’t a fluke, either. In Indian Wells earlier this month, she beat Jessica Pegula on her way to the quarterfinals, and in Cincinnati last August, she made the 1000-level final as well. Once upon a time, Kvitova struggled in the States, but now she thrives on our hard courts. Against Cirstea, she used her serve-forehand combination to maximum effect, and was broken just once.

Kvitova can beat anyone. But can she beat her fellow 6-footer Elena Rybakina on Saturday? That’s the toughest ask in women’s tennis at the moment. Rybakina is 21-4 on the year, has won 13 matches in a row, and is aiming to complete the second Sunshine Double in successive seasons (Iga Swiatek did it in 2022).

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The traditionally hot-and-cold Kvitova will likely come down to earth at some point in this match. But it’s not a lock.

Rybakina started slowly in Miami, as she recovered from her title run in Indian Wells. But she has warmed to the challenge and built momentum and confidence over the past week. Against the third-seeded Pegula in the semifinals, Rybakina wasn’t always the better player, but she found a way to win every point she needed. She seems to be in that enviable mental zone where, whether or not you’re actually playing well, you don’t think you’re going to lose.

Rybakina should be favored. She’s 10 years younger, and is coming in with an extra half-day of rest; she has the best bailout serve around right now; she has made herself a less streaky player this season; and the traditionally hot-and-cold Kvitova will likely come down to earth at some point in this match. But it’s not a lock.

While Rybakina won their first meeting, last fall, Kvitova bounced back to hand Rybakina one of her four losses of 2023, in Adelaide in January. That doesn’t make me think she’ll do it again, but it does make me think she’ll make it interesting. Winner: Rybakina

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