Good afternoon, everyone. With the women's US Open final bearing down on us, I'm going to save my thoughts on Serena Williams and last night's shocking end to her semifinal with Kim Clijsters for another time. As a special feature, I asked our two WTA gurus, Master Ace (aka Patrick Hinton) and Bobby Chintapalli (aka Bobby) to predict the final - the only caveat being that they had to take opposing views. Bobby drew the short straw, which gave Patrick the choice of player. Bobby has to defend the chances of the other finalist; good training, I figured, in the event she ever decides to attend law school.
So let's yield the floor to Master Ace:
Caroline Wozniacki has been the most consistent player on the tour in 2009. She leads the WTA in match wins with 62, and is currently on an 11-match winning streak. However, she has never before made ewen a quarterfinal at a Slam.
!90643923 For all of Wozniacki's consistency, the media were asking when she is going to make a deep run at a Slam, and some of the ESPN.com analysts had her going out earlier than expected. At the start of the US Open Series, she struggled, and the media wondered if she's played too many matches. Then, she turned her summer around; she defended her title at New Haven (she took out Flavia Pennetta in the semifinals), and it gave her the confidence she needed going into the last major of the year.
I knew Caroline had a great chance to make the semifinals in New York; after all, the Williams Sisters were on the opposite side of the draw. Early in the event, Elena Dementieva - ranked just behind Serena Williams as a potential winner - was ousted by Melanie Oudin. In the 4th round, Caroline used her mental strength and defensive skills to survive Svetlana Kuzentsova, the French Open champion and another top contender. Wozniaki won in two tiebreakers. Then she showed no sign of nerves as she ended Oudin's enchanted run, despite the extraordinary support the young America got from all of New York - media included.
Caroline's opponent, Kim Clijsters, has had an equally wonderful if very different run. She sat down both Williams sisters enroute to the final, largely due to her outstanding consistency. However, in her match against Venus, Clijsters showed signs of nerves in her final service game. And we'll never know how the semifinal clash with Serena would have ended if Clijsters had to win match point, instead of having it awarded to her via the point penalty against Serena.
Before Clijsters retired in 2007, she had a reputation for struggling in the late stages of big Slam matches: before this year, she'd been in 12 semifinals but won only one major (2005 USO). Let's not kid ourselves - she's the overwhelming favorite in the final. But I believe nerves will get to the best of her once again, and Caroline is steady enough to become the first woman player from Denmark (and all of Scandanavia) to win the US Open.
-- Patrick
!90643211 Of course Wozniacki’s been playing well. She beat two seeds on her way to the final, her doubles partner Sorana Cirstea (who beat Wozniacki the two other times they played this year), and Svetlana Kuznetsova, who also beat her earlier this year (and happened to win a cute, little tournament in Paris just a few months ago).
Wozniacki’s playing great defense (is there a ball she can’t run down?), as well as some impressive offense - she has a talent for changing up the rhythm in rallies, and hitting the kinds of shots her opponents don’t like (just ask Melanie Oudin). Remind you of someone? A certain tot-toting Belgian wildcard who’s in the final, perhaps? Kim Clijsters does a lot of the same things Wozniacki does – moves well, switches easily from great defense to offense, demonstrates a good feel for the angles on the court - only she does them better.
Clijsters has ended an impressive number of points with winners (26 percent); Wozniacki's percentage is just 14. Wozniacki’s had fewer unforced errors (23 percent to 33 percent), but Clijsters will be able to nudge Wozniacki’s error ratio up tonight. In the semifinal match, Serena Williams had twice as many UFEs as she did (on average) in her five previous matches. Coincidence. . .or Clijsters?
I'd say the latter, and I'm going with Clijsters to win. She may suddenly realize during the final that she's the first wild card to make the final, and lose a little of that free-swinging quality that has taken her this far. But even if that does happen, I still think she’ll outplay Wozniacki. After all, the underdog may also realize what she's about to accomplish (for herself as well as Denmark), and don't forget that she's the youngest member of the Top 10. She he may have trouble handling the pressure herself. She might stop moving so well, with all the world watching.
The critical thing when it comes to the "pressure" issue is that Clijsters has more big-match experience, and she's playing great. One word convinces me more than anything else, and that word is ‘Williams’. How could anyone beat both Venus and Serena on the way to the final and not win it all? If you want my opinion, Patrick, anytime that happens I think they should cancel the final and just hand over the trophy.
Good luck - your girl will need it!
-- Bobby