Game, Set, Bet, presented by BetMGM: Casper Ruud vs. Holger Rune, Acapulco

The action in Acapulco has been fantastic all week, so it’s fitting that we’re getting exciting semi-final showdown between world No. 11 Casper Ruud and world No. 7 Holger Rune. Ruud is coming off a run to the final in Los Cabos, where he was unable to defeat a red-hot Jordan Thompson. But overall, Ruud has looked locked in over the last couple of weeks, and his game has proven to be a great fit for slower hard-court events.

As for Rune, this week has been rather straightforward thus far. His partnership with Patrick Mouratoglou is one that looks like it could be quite fruitful, and the two are likely looking to make a statement in Mexico this week.

With all of that in mind, emotions should be high between these two, and that’s exactly what we want. This has been an exciting rivalry over the last few years, with a bit of spice, so another chapter is always welcome. This should also be a fun match from a betting perspective. It feels like it can go either way, and there are reasons to bet on both players. Let us dish out all of those for you and let you make the decision. (Bet on it here.)

Why You Should Bet On Casper Ruud (-135 ML)

• Ruud beat Rune in four sets at the 2023 French Open, improving to 5-1 in six career meetings. All of those matches were played on clay, but the gritty hard courts in Acapulco aren't that different than playing on dirt.
• Ruud is 12-3 in 2024, giving him a career-high winning percentage of 80.0%.
• Ruud has a hold percentage of 94.2% since the start of the year, the highest hold percentage of his career.
• Ruud has a higher hold percentage and break percentage (24.6%) than Rune since the start of the 2024 season.
• Ruud is making more first serves than Rune this year: 65.2%, compared to the Dane’s 61.8%.
• Ruud is an impressive 19-13 (59.4%) in semifinal matches in his career.
• Ruud has dialed up his aggression since the start of 2024, playing more quick-strike tennis than ever. Ruud has been more of a conservative player throughout his career, and the word “boring” has been thrown around with him. He defended himself against those claims in a press conference at last year's US Open. But Ruud has been pounding shots from the baseline this season, hitting with serious depth and spin to make opponents uncomfortable.

Why You Should Bet On Holger Rune (+105 ML)

• Rune won the last time these two played a best-of-three-set match, a 6-7 (2), 6-4, 6-2 victory in last year's Rome semifinals.
• Ruud is just 10-27 in 37 tour-level meetings with Top 10 players.
• Ruud is just 1-5 versus Top 10 players over the last 52 weeks.
• Rune (61.9%) has a higher career win percentage on hard courts than Ruud (57.3%).
• Though not quite as good as Ruud, the Dane is 9-7 (56.3%) in semifinal matches throughout his career.
• Rune might be able to win more free points with the ball on his racquet, with his 11.7% ace percentage in 2024 being a bit higher than Ruud’s (10.5%).
• Rune has one of the best backhands on tour, which should give him an edge in backhand-to-backhand exchanges. Ruud’s backhand can occasionally be a weakness, so it’s something to keep an eye on.
• Rune has one of the most effective dropshots in tennis, which could be a weapon on these slower courts.